Expert NFL ATS Week 16 Betting Picks: Top Games You Can't Miss

With the NFL season at a critical juncture, NFL ATS Week 16 betting picks have never been more important. Week 16 is packed with high-stakes matchups that will shape playoff hopes, affect draft positioning, and set the momentum for the final stretch of the season. We’ve analyzed the key games, taking into account recent form, injuries, and matchup advantages to bring you the best against-the-spread picks for this week’s action.

Top ATS Picks for the Top Games NFL Week 16: Expert Bets to Watch
NFL Week 16 ATS Edge: Gain the Advantage Over the Competition

2024 NFL season | 104th season of National Football League in the United States
Week 16: Wednesday, December 25th – Monday, December 30th, 2024

Betting ATS Picks in the Sixteenth Week of the Season

The NFL season is reaching its most critical point, and Week 16 offers matchups that will determine playoff hopes, draft positioning, and momentu m heading into the final stretch.

We’ve analyzed the most compelling games, factoring in injuries, recent form, and matchup advantages to deliver the best against-the-spread bets for this week.

Here’s a breakdown of 10 top games and our ATS predictions.

Writer’s ATS Picks for the NFL Week 17

TNF: Broncos vs Chargers

Thursday, December 19th, 2024

Denver’s elite secondary poses a major challenge for Justin Herbert and the Chargers, who are short on playmakers outside of Ladd McConkey.

Combined with Denver’s strong run game, which has averaged 4.5 yards per carry recently, the Broncos can control the clock and rely on their defense to keep the game close.

The Chargers’ struggling run defense provides Denver with an edge to stay within the number.

NFL ATS Picks: Broncos +3

Texans vs Chiefs

Saturday, December 21st, 2024

The Texans‘ offense has hit a wall, averaging just 4.6 yards per play in recent weeks, and they face a stiff challenge against a Chiefs defense that has allowed only 18.2 points per game.

Whether Patrick Mahomes suits up or not, Kansas City’s defense is good enough to dictate the game.

Houston’s offensive line struggles and inefficiency on the road make the Chiefs a solid underdog bet.

NFL ATS Picks: Chiefs +2.5

Steelers vs Ravens

Saturday, December 21st, 2024

The Ravens’ defense has improved significantly, ranking in the top five in EPA since Week 11, while the Steelers’ offense remains inconsistent and inefficient.

Baltimore leads the NFL in net yards per play and boasts a balanced offense that can wear down Pittsburgh.

With a strong defense and home-field advantage, the Ravens are poised to cover the spread.

NFL ATS Picks: Ravens -6

Eagles vs Commanders

Sunday, December 22nd, 2024

The Eagles have emerged as the most complete team in the NFC, and their elite secondary will prove too much for Washington’s regressing offense.

Philadelphia dominated the Commanders earlier this season and should do so again, as Jayden Daniels has struggled against top-tier defenses.

Expect the Eagles’ balanced attack to win comfortably on the road.

NFL ATS Picks: Eagles -3.5

Rams vs Jets

Sunday, December 22nd, 2024

The Jets’ defense remains elite, ranking second in opponent pass yards per attempt, which presents a challenge for Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ pass-heavy offense.

New York has played its best football recently, ranking seventh in net yards per play over the last three weeks.

With Aaron Rodgers stabilizing the offense, the Jets can keep this game close at home.

NFL ATS Picks: Jets +3

Titans vs Colts

Sunday, December 22nd, 2024

Despite their poor record, the Titans rank higher than the Colts in net yards per play and have a defense capable of containing Anthony Richardson.

Tennessee’s pass rush will disrupt Richardson, who has struggled in recent weeks, and their offense should capitalize on a Colts defense that ranks in the bottom third of the league.

The Titans are a live underdog in this divisional matchup.

NFL ATS Picks: Titans +4.5

SNF: 49ers vs Dolphins

Sunday, December 22nd, 2024

The Dolphins’ offense, reliant on yards after the catch, faces a 49ers defense built to limit explosive plays and tackle in space.

Kyle Shanahan’s familiarity with Mike McDaniel’s scheme gives San Francisco a strategic edge, and their balanced attack remains one of the most efficient in the NFL.

The 49ers are a strong underdog with upset potential.

NFL ATS Picks: 49ers +1.5

MNF: Vikings vs Seahawks

Monday, December 23rd, 2024

The Vikings’ offense is rounding into form, and Sam Darnold has continued to impress under center.

Seahawks defense has struggled to stop both the run and pass, and Geno Smith’s questionable status further weakens their chances.

Minnesota’s improved offensive line and strong defensive play make them the better team to back in this matchup.

NFL ATS Picks: Vikings -3

Patriots vs Bills

The Patriots have shown surprising consistency, ranking seventh in success rate since Week 11.

Bills defense is dealing with numerous injuries, and they’ve allowed teams to score at will in recent weeks.

With a spread this large, New England’s steady offense and capable quarterback play provide enough value to take the points.

NFL ATS Picks: Patriots +14

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Here's the schedule for Week 16 of the 2024-25 NFL Season! pic.twitter.com/LyyzGG7qp5
— Trip (@tripnfl) December 17, 2024

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Which teams are favored to cover the spread in Week 16? Let’s Find Out

As we head into NFL Week 16, several teams are positioned as favorites to cover the spread in what promises to be a thrilling slate of games.

Key matchups include top contenders like the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, who are expected to handle their opponents with ease based on the latest betting odds and NFL lines. Other teams, such as the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles, are also favored, thanks to strong performances throughout the NFL season.

However, it’s important to remember that in the NFL, surprises can happen, and even favorites can struggle to cover the spread. Bettors will need to carefully analyze the NFL Week 16 odds, team dynamics, and injury reports to make informed decisions.

Check out our sportsbook news section for more expert analysis and up-to-date betting lines to get a better sense of which teams are most likely to cover the spread.

Ready to dive in? Sign up now to access the latest betting odds and NFL Week 16 lines, and make your picks on the teams most likely to cover the spread this week!

I have read enough, I need to place my bet now. What to do?

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NFL Week 16 ATS Picks and Expert Analysis

Previous Betting News

2023 NFL Week 16 ATS Picks: We are coming off a very good week in terms of our ATS picks, as we nailed a 3-game parlay in our Week 15 picks. MyBookie Sportsbook NFL Odds, American Football NFL Lines

Rather than resting on our laurels, we are going to try and get a repeat this coming weekend, which may be a little tougher given how many games we have that the bookies see as being tight. There are a bunch of teams who are basically in playoff survival mode at the moment, with the level of desperation that comes with being in that point enough to potentially create some upsets, which is what we have been seeing all season long. We have narrowed the schedule down to 3 games that we like against the spread, so let’s go ahead and break them down.

Buffalo Bills at LA Chargers

We have spent much of the season wondering what is wrong with the Buffalo Bills, but as we head down the homestretch, they suddenly look like a very dangerous team again. Wins over KC and Dallas suggest that the Bills are back in business, but they have a tricky road trip against the Chargers coming up on Saturday night. The Chargers relieved Brandon Staley of his head coaching job this week, which is no real surprise given how badly the Chargers have struggled this season. We often see teams get a positive bounce after a head coach is fired, and while I don’t see the Bills losing this one, I do think the Chargers can keep it closer than the spread suggests.

Washington Commanders at New York Jets

The season is effectively over for both of these teams, as the Jets and Commanders are now officially eliminated from playoff contention. That makes this one of the few meaningless games on the Week 16 schedule, but I still think there is some money to be made here. The Commanders have covered just once in their last 5 games overall, but they have also failed to cover in their last 5 meetings with the Jets, going 0-4-1 ATS in those outings. In fairness, the Jets have been a nightmare against the spread his years, covering once in their last 7 games. This is a definite risk, but I think the Jets can win and cover in this one.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is one of the more interesting games on the Week 16 schedule, as both of these teams are still in the hunt to win their respective divisions, with both currently holding the lead by the slenderest of margins. The Jaguars are on the slide right now and come into this game on a 3-game losing skid, with all of those losses coming against conference foes. One the flipside, the Buccaneers are getting hot at the right time, winning 3 in a row ahead of this one to regain the lead in the NFC South. The Bucs have also covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games, and while the Jags have covered in 9 of their last 10 on the road, I think they come up a little short this weekend.

I have read enough, I need to place my bet now. What to do?