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NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Odds after Week 9: Top Players to Keep an Eye this 2024 Season

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Odds after Week 9: Top Players to Keep an Eye this 2024 Season

Written by on November 8, 2024

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Every year at the NFL Draft, you have a bunch of teams going in looking for the QB that they hope will turn the fortunes of their franchise around.

It is a task that is easier said than done, as history has proven that guys coming out of college that look like “can’t miss” prospects end up being a bit of a disaster.

 

My NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Odds Analysis

For every QB that comes in and makes it in the league, there are several more who bounce around for years as backups before being left out in the cold.

The job of quarterback might well be the toughest in all sports, and the pressure that comes with the position is something that some players simply cannot handle.

We had a new crop come in for the 2024 season, and now that we are into the second half of the schedule, we have a very good idea of how they all look.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the current crop of QB rookies, listing them in the order in which they were drafted.

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Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

In fairness to the players who have failed in the past, not all the blame can be placed on their shoulders. Rookie QBs who come in and are given the starter’s job right away are generally going to teams that are in a bit of a mess.

The Chicago Bears certainly fit that bill, as there has been a high level of dysfunction in that franchise for a few years now.

Their last rookie QB, Justin Fields, was deemed surplus to requirements and is now doing a fine job with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Caleb Williams is being forced to shoulder a lot of the work as a rookie, and you have to say that he is doing a decent job of it, at least for now. The Bears are 4-4, but they have lost 2 in a row.

Williams has thrown for 1,665 yards (23rd overall), 9 TD and 5 INT. Those are certainly not gaudy numbers, but this is a guy that needs help on a mediocre team.

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Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

With a recent ownership change in Washington, this now looks like a franchise with some purpose. They appear to be making all the right moves, not the least of which was drafting Jayden Daniels as the 2nd pick overall in the NFL Draft.

Daniels has been nothing short of brilliant through his first 9 games, leading the team to a 7-2 record, which is good enough for the lead in the NFC East.

Were it not for what Brock Bowers is doing with the Raiders, you would have to say that Daniels would be a shoo-in for the Rookie of the Year this season.

This young man looks incredibly composed on the field and is doing a great job of limiting his errors, tossing just 2 INT versus 9 TDs.

He has passed for 1,945 yards (13th overall).

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Drake Maye, New England Patriots

The glory days for the Patriots are now very much in the rearview mirror, as they are now on their 2nd rookie QB that they hope will somehow get close to what Brady accomplished in his time there, which is a truly untenable position.

Mac Jones looked decent for a minute before crumbling and hitting the trading block, while Drake Maye, who was chosen 3rd overall in the draft, has been in and out of the team as the starter this season.

He has made appearances in 5 games, throwing for 770 yards, as well as 6 TD versus 4 INT.

During those 5 games, the Patriots have won just once, which is not really on the shoulders of Maye, as the expectation was that this team was going to struggle this year. Until they can build a better team. Maye’s numbers are probably not going to improve.

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Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons

After going out and dropping some serious dough to secure the services of Kirk Cousins, the Atlanta Falcons surprised everyone by drafting Penix Jr. 8th overall in the draft.

That pick set the cat among the pigeons, but the Falcons made it very clear that Cousins was their starter, which has proven to be true.

We will need to wait and see what this young man does on the field when he finally gets his chance.

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J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings

Drafted 10th overall as the replacement for Cousins, McCarthy was expected to be the starter for the Vikings this year, but a brutal preseason injury put him out for the season, so this is another guy that we are going to need to wait and see with.

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Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

The Broncos are another team that has had issues at the position since Peyton Manning hung up the shoulder pads.

Bo Nix, who was drafted 13th overall, is their latest pick to try and turn things around. The results to this point have been mixed, which is exactly what you would expect from a rookie starter.

Nix has certainly had his moments, but he has also had rookie mistakes mixed in, but through it all, the Broncos are at 5-4 and very much alive in the Wild Card picture.

Bo has thrown for 1.753 yards with 8 TD and 6 INT, the latter of which is a number that he needs to improve upon.

The jury is still out on Nix right now, but there appears to be more positive than negative.

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Spencer Rattler, New Orleans Saints

Drafted in the 5th Round, the expectation was that Rattler would sit behind Derek Carr and learn from an NFL veteran.

Plans don’t always go as intended, though, with Rattler thrown into action after an injury to Carr a few weeks back.

Rattler has lost all 3 games that he started and has thrown more INTs (2) than TDs (1).

You certainly can’t drop all the blame on his shoulders, though, as this Saints team was slumping even before the injury to Carr.

That said, it does appear that Carr will return in Week 10, sending Rattler back to the bench.

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2021-22 NFL Rookie Quarterbacks
 

This past offseason was a big one for teams looking to rebuild and trying to land a franchise QB. The 2021 NFL Draft was one of the best in recent memory in terms of the quarterbacks that were available, but as we have seen in the past, a great college career does not always translate to success in the NFL. We saw 3 QB’s picked up with the opening 3 picks of the draft, as well as 2 more in the opening round. The way things played out was perhaps not as we expected once the season began, but it is perhaps to soon to be talking about successes or busts after a single season in the pros. Still, we thought it might be fun to take a look at what those 5 QBs did in their rookie season so you can continue betting against the NFL odds.

NFL – Top Rookie QB for the 2021-22 Season

Mac Jones – New England Patriots

Jones was taken 15th overall and was the last of the top 5 QBs chosen. He did not have a ton of expectation heaped on his shoulders, but he turned out to be the best of the bunch, helping lead the Patriots to the postseason. Jones played in all 17 games and ended up ranked 13th overall in the QB standings, going 352 of 521 for a 67.6% completion rate. He had 22 TD passes versus 13 INT and tossed for 3,801 yards. Jones looks like the real deal and will likely continue to improve.

Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville Jaguars

Everyone looked at Lawrence, the #1 overall pick, as the one who could not miss. He showed some flashes of ability in a situation that would have been tough for any QB. The Jaguars were a disaster in 2021, but perhaps things will be better with a new head coach in 2022. Lawrence went 359 of 602 for 3, 641 yards in his rookie season, good for 17th overall in the QB rankings. He only managed 12 TD passes versus 17 INT, but in fairness, he was not surrounded by a ton of talent.

Zach Wilson – New York Jets

Wilson played in 13 games this season and did not do a whole heck of a lot to impress Jets fans. Again, it is tough to judge him based on this single season, as we are all aware that the Jets are an absolute mess at the moment. In those 13 games, Wilson went 213 of 383 for 2,334 yards. He tossed 9 TD passes versus 11 INT and ranked 30th out of 49 QB’s that started this season.

Justin Fields – Chicago Bears

Fields started 12 games for the Chicago Bears, and while he had some good moments, he also struggled a little at times. In short, exactly what you would expect from a rookie playing on a poor team. Fields went 159 of 270 for 1, 870 yards, but he also added 420 yards in the running game as a mobile style QB. He had 7 TD passes and 10 picks on the season, so room for improvement there.

Trey Lance – San Francisco 49ers

There was not a lot to go on with Lance, as the 49ers chose to go with Jimmy Garoppolo, who led them all the way to the NFC Championship Game. With Garoppolo likely to leave in the offseason, it may be next season before we get a serious look at Lance.

  

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