Patriots vs Bills Pick: NFL Week 16 Betting Preview and Analysis

Yes, there is a significant rivalry between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills, and it has been a major part of the AFC East division for many years.

While the rivalry may not be as historically intense as some other NFL rivalries, it has grown more heated in recent seasons due to the Patriots’ dominance of the division and the Bills’ resurgence as a competitive force.

Key Aspects of the Patriots vs. Bills Rivalry:

1. Historical Context:
   The rivalry began in the early years of the NFL, but it was largely overshadowed by the Patriots’ dominance of the AFC East in the 2000s and 2010s. For nearly two decades, the Patriots, led by quarterback Tom Brady, were the dominant team in the division, regularly finishing with strong records and eliminating the Bills from playoff contention year after year. During that stretch, the Bills often struggled to compete at the same level.

2. Division Rivalry:
   The Patriots and Bills are both members of the AFC East, so their games are critical in determining playoff seeding and division standings. As a result, their matchups are always important, especially when it comes to positioning for the playoffs.

3. The Tom Brady Era:
   For much of the 2000s and 2010s, the Patriots dominated the rivalry, with Tom Brady leading the team to multiple Super Bowl victories and winning nearly every division title. The Bills, on the other hand, were consistently rebuilding and struggling to compete. Brady’s dominance of the rivalry gave the Patriots a significant edge, but the Bills’ frustration with their inability to beat New England only added fuel to the rivalry.

4. Buffalo’s Resurgence:
   In recent years, the rivalry has gained new intensity with the emergence of Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills as a top contender in the AFC. Since Allen became the Bills’ quarterback in 2018, Buffalo has significantly improved and challenged New England for AFC East supremacy. The Bills’ success, including playoff appearances and a 2020 AFC Championship run, has reinvigorated the rivalry, leading to more competitive and intense matchups.

5. Competitive Games in Recent Seasons:
   In the past few seasons, the Bills have become one of the strongest teams in the AFC, and their rivalry with the Patriots has become much more competitive. In the 2020 season, Buffalo finally clinched the AFC East title, ending the Patriots’ long reign of division dominance. The 2021 season featured a memorable winter game in Buffalo, where the Bills and Patriots played in snowy, wind-driven conditions, showcasing the tough and gritty nature of their rivalry.

6. Playoff Implications:
   The rivalry has become even more meaningful in the playoffs in recent years, with both teams competing for top spots in the division. Games between the Patriots and Bills now have major implications on seeding, and there is a palpable sense of urgency when the two teams meet. The Bills’ rising competitiveness has made these games more unpredictable and dramatic.

7. Fan Passion and Regional Pride:
   The rivalry is also fueled by passionate fanbases. Fans in Buffalo view the Patriots as their primary nemesis, and they take pride in trying to knock off the longstanding division champion. Patriots fans, on the other hand, often view the Bills as a traditional rival and a team that they need to defeat to maintain their dominance in the AFC East.

Betting Conclusion:

The Patriots vs. Bills rivalry has evolved from one-sided dominance to a much more competitive and intense battle in recent years. As the Bills have emerged as a Super Bowl contender, the rivalry has rekindled with more dramatic and impactful games. While the Patriots’ reign in the division has ended, the rivalry continues to thrive, with both teams looking to solidify their position at the top of the AFC East.

Previous Betting News

AFC East rivals New England and Buffalo throw down on the Bills’ field in an early Sunday matchup that has implications for Buffalo’s playoff hopes. The Bills are on fire after winning 4-of-5 and 3 straight. New England wants to play spoiler.

Can Buffalo cover a massive spread that has floated to -12? Will the Patriots scare the rival Bills?

MyBookie offers the NFL betting odds, game analysis, and betting pick for the New England Patriots versus the Buffalo Bills which are playing on Week 17 of the NFL season.

2023 Patriots vs Bills Odds and Betting Pick for this Week 17 Matchup | MyBookie NFL Regular Season Preview

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills | NFL Week 17
ATS Odds: Bills -12
Money line Odds: New England Patriots Line: +500 / Buffalo Bills Line: -725
Over/Under Odds:40.5

Sunday, December 31st, 2023 at 1:00 pm ET | CBS
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York

Why Bet on Patriots versus Bills

New England remains one of the worst teams in the NFL, but the Patriots have shown signs of stepping it up in recent games. The Pats played terrific football when upsetting the Denver Broncos in their last.

New England’s defense is a well-coached and solid unit. The offense is more effective with Baily Zappe in charge than Mac Jones. New England has won 2-of-3 over the Steelers and the Broncos and played Kansas City tough until late in a 27-17 loss.

Why Bet on Bills versus Patriots

Buffalo is on fire. The Bills not only are on a 3-game winning streak, but the victories came against 3 squads with tough defenses, the Chiefs, the Cowboys, and the Chargers.

The Bills scored 31 points against Dallas’ defense in their last home game. Josh Allen and his mates know what’s at stake on Sunday. So we should expect Buffalo to play their best football.

Buffalo versus New England Final Betting Prediction

The Bills will beat the rival Patriots but asking Buffalo to win by more than 10 points is a tall ask. Buffalo has played at such a prominent level that a bounce, ala the 49rs versus the Ravens in NFL Week 16, is a possibility.

The difference is that the Ravens are one of the best teams in the NFL, which is why Baltimore beat San Francisco. New England isn’t a good football team. So Buffalo gets the victory. However, the final score is going to be much closer than many Bills fans believe. Back New England to score the ATS win.

2023 NFL Pick: ATS New England Patriots +12 | Bet Patriots vs Bills
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game

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Previous Betting News

How to Bet Patriots at Bills NFL Odds & TV Info

• When: Saturday, 8:15 PM ET
• Where: Highmark Stadium
• TV: CBS
• Stream Option: Paramount+
• Opening NFL Lines: Bills -4 (total 44)

For just the second time ever, the rival New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills will meet in the postseason as they square off in a Wild-Card game Saturday night from what is going to be an extremely cold Buffalo with the Bills favored on the NFL betting lines.

Season Series

In Week 13, the Patriots won in Buffalo 14-10 on a Monday night in extremely bad conditions with snow and heavy winds. New England QB Mac Jones completed just two of three pass attempts for 19 yards. Damien Harris scored on a 64-yard run in an outing the Patriots out-gained Buffalo 222 to 99 in yards rushing. Buffalo had just 230 yards offense. Tyler Bass missed a 34-yard attempt wide right into the wind in a game the Bills managed 10 points on four drives inside the New England’s 20.

In Week 16 at New England, the Bills won 33-21 as Josh Allen threw for three scores and cornerback Micah Hyde made two interceptions. The Bills never trailed and had no punts or turnovers. Jones was 14 of 32 passing for 145 yards and two interceptions.

Why Bet on New England?

The Patriots lost for the third time in four games Sunday, 33-24, but New England wouldn’t have won the AFC East even with a win because Buffalo won. The Patriots have played in wild-card games before under Bill Belichick — but had never been to the playoffs in the Belichick era as a wild card. All 17 of the previous playoff appearances in his years there have come after a division title.

Rookie QB Mac Jones completed 20-of-30 passes for 261 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Jones was pick-sixed on his first throw of the game. Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard read Jones looking for a shallow completion on third down and jumped the pass. After that dreadful play, Jones had a solid night. In the Patriots’ seven-game win streak, Jones threw nine touchdown passes and two interceptions. In the four games since, he has six touchdown passes, five interceptions and a costly lost fumble.

Jones became the first rookie quarterback to lead his team to the playoffs since Dak Prescott in 2016. Jones led all rookies this season in completion percentage (67.6), passing yards (3,801), touchdown passes (22) and passer rating (92.5). He is bidding to become just the fourth rookie quarterback since 2000 and first since Russell Wilson in 2012 to go on the road and win his first NFL postseason start.

The Patriots ranked second in the league with 24 rushing touchdowns this season, including 15 rushing touchdowns from running back Damien Harris, tied for the second-most in the NFL this season. Harris is listed as questionable for this game but expected to play.

New England placed cornerback Jalen Mills on the reserve/COVID list on Tuesday. This doesn’t officially rule him out of Saturday’s game, but it does open the possibility that the team could be without their starter opposite J.C. Jackson. Third-year CB Joejuan Williams would be one candidate to step in if Mills is out

Jackson led the NFL with a career-high 23 passes defensed, including eight interceptions. Jackson, who has 25 career interceptions, became the fourth player in the Super Bowl era to record 25-or-more interceptions in his first four seasons.

Saturday’s game marks the seventh time in team history that the Patriots will play a division foe in the postseason and the first time since the 2010 season. The Patriots are 5-1 in those games.

Why Bet on Buffalo?

The Bills won the AFC East with a 27-10 victory over the Jets on Sunday, Buffalo’s fourth straight win. The defense limited the Jets to a franchise-low 53 yards of total offense, and Cam Lewis even blocked a punt. Buffalo’s defense led the way by setting a franchise record in limiting New York to generating four first downs and sacking rookie Zach Wilson nine times, the most by Buffalo since getting 10 in a 23-0 win over Commanders on Oct. 20, 2011.

Josh Allen completed 24-of-45 passes for 239 yards and two touchdowns, rushing five times for 63 yards. Allen became the first player in franchise history to pass for 4,000 yards in consecutive seasons. With six rushing touchdowns this season, he also became the first quarterback ever with six-or-more rushing touchdowns in each of his first four seasons.

Stefon Diggs caught 9-of-14 targets for 81 yards and a touchdown. Diggs actually opened the game with a 10-yard touchdown on Buffalo’s first drive. Diggs’ 14 targets tied Gabriel Davis’ total for the team lead, seeing 13 targets for the third time in his last five games. Diggs is one of two NFL players with 1,000-or-more receiving yards and at least six touchdown catches in each of the past four seasons, joining Mike Evans.

Fellow WR Emmanuel Sanders (knee) does not have an injury designation for Sunday’s game. He has practiced in full after sitting out Weeks 17-18. He finished the regular season with 42 receptions, 626 yards and four touchdowns while starting 13 of 14 games in 2021.

Devin Singletary rushed 19 times for 88 yards and one score, hauling in both of his targets for 24 yards and a receiving touchdown in Buffalo win over the Jets. Buffalo’s run game has found traction and been productive with the second-most rushing yards in the league (636) and the seventh highest yards per carry average over the final month of the season (4.82).

Sean McDermott has led the Bills to playoff appearances in four of his five seasons as an NFL head coach, including consecutive AFC East titles, the team’s first division crowns since 1995. His 2021 club was the only team in the NFL to finish in the top five in both total offense (381.9 yards per game, fifth) and total defense (272.8 yards allowed per game, first).

Along with the Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo is one of just two teams to finish among the top six in schedule-adjusted EPA on both offense and defense.

Expert Prediction

Bills 23, Patriots 16