For only the third time in franchise history, the New York Jets have made an in-season coaching change with former defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich taking over in the Monday night game to conclude Week 6 against the visiting Buffalo Bills, who are short road favorites on the NFL odds.
Buffalo at New York Jets MNF: 20241 NFL Expert Analysis
| Opening NFL Lines Subject to Change: Bills -1 (total 41) Expert Prediction: Jets 20, Bills 17 |
Buffalo Bills -119
The Bills have lost back-to-back games after starting 3-0 and trying to avoid their first three-game skid since 2018. QB Josh Allen has never lost three in a row in the NFL as a starter.
Josh Allen
Allen really struggled in the 23-20 loss in Houston in Week 5, completing only 9-of-30 passes for 131 yards and a touchdown, adding 54 yards on four carries. It was the lowest completion percentage of his career. Allen was let down by his receiving core for almost the entirety of the game — Mack Hollins was wide open for a score early in the game, while Hollins, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Dalton Kincaid also dropped some catches that would have turned the flow of the game. Bills leading WR Khalil Shakir was out injured but likely back tonight.
Allen was cleared from a concussion during that Houston loss but he admitted after the game he was in some pain. “Big shot to the chest. Rolled my ankle. They flagged me for hitting my head, but felt good enough to go back in,” he said. Tonight is Allen’s 100th career game. His 231 career total TD (pass/rush/rec) are the second-most through 100 career games in NFL history behind Patrick Mahomes’ 237.
The AVG
Buffalo began the season averaging more than 30 points per game but in the last two have averaged just 15 points per game. In relation to the passing attack, head coach Sean McDermott and offensive coordinator Joe Brady said they remain confident in the players inside the building. Both TE Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox have not recorded more than 47 yards in a game this season and have one touchdown between the two of them.
Sean McDermott
“I’m confident in those guys, confident that we can put them in positions to use their talents and their potential,” McDermott said. “We’re going to work hard at that as we continue forward. And we do need to improve in that area as a whole here, so we got to do a better job on winning first downs and staying out of third-and-long.”
Josh Allen vs The Jets
Allen has a 7-4 career record versus the Jets and his numbers on Monday Night Football are even better. The Bills captain has the fourth-best passer rating of any player on Monday Nights since he entered the NFL in 2018 with a mark of 108.9. He also has 22 passing touchdowns against just six interceptions. The last two weeks, however, he has had trouble against the blitz, as his receivers have found it difficult to gain separation against the stronger coverage units of the Ravens and Texans. Over the last two games, Allen is 5-16 passing (31.3%) against the blitz for 34 yards with one touchdown, four sacks and a passer rating of 66.
Buffalo is still a top 10 team in the red zone scoring touchdowns 66.7% of the time (tied for 7th best). They’ve also been protecting the football as they have only two turnovers (tied for the lowest in the NFL).
We’re live with Coach McDermott as he meets with the media.#BUFvsNYJ | #BillsMafia https://t.co/uQANRUkSA6
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) October 12, 2024
Injuries
McDermott has ruled out DT Ed Oliver (hamstring) for Monday night’s game, Oliver’s second straight game missed. RB James Cook (foot/toe), CB Taron Johnson (forearm) and DT Austin Johnson (oblique) are questionable but Cook has said he will play.
^New York Jets -103
The Jets fired head coach Robert Saleh last week in a surprise and replaced him on an interim basis with defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, who will continue to call defensive plays. Saleh reportedly was going to fire offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett until Saleh himself got canned. Ulbrich didn’t fire Hackett but took away play-calling duties and gave them to QBs coach and former Titans OC Todd Downing.
"He is an ultimate competitor" – CJ Mosley on Coach Jeff Ulbrich
— New York Jets (@nyjets) October 12, 2024
Watch Jets Gameday Show at 7:30am on WCBS-NY Sunday! pic.twitter.com/bCHwPTBLdq
Aaron Rodgers
QB Rodgers (ankle) practiced fully Saturday and was removed from the injury report. The big injury question involves LB C.J. Mosley (toe), listed as questionable. He has missed the last three games, but he has a legit chance to return. NB Michael Carter (back) is out. He probably will be replaced by Isaiah Oliver. RT Morgan Moses (knee) is poised to return after missing two games.
Rodgers has the worst numbers of his Hall of Fame career through five games. A problem has been handling the blitz as opponents have brought five or more rushers on more than 32 percent of his drop backs this season, the highest against him in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). It has forced him to get the ball out in less than 2.5 seconds more than half the time (56.6%), which is the highest rate for him since his 2017 season with Green Bay. And his efficiency has been compromised as well as he’s managed just a 74.8 passer rating when blitzed this season.
Todd Downing
The Jets need more balance in their offense to reduce the pressure on Rodgers, and that’s where new play-caller Downing comes in. His No. 1 priority is to revitalize the dormant rushing attack, saving Rodgers from having to drop back an absurd number of times. In last week’s 23-17 loss to the Vikings, Rodgers dropped back on 57 of 71 plays, including 19 straight during a stretch in the fourth quarter.
Rodgers has completed fewer than 60% of his passes in back-to-back games, an uncommon occurrence. He has gone three straight games only once in his career (2015). It’s probably because he’s throwing too much — 96 attempts in the past two games.
“In a two-decade career, he has very few blips on the radar,” Downing said. “I know that Aaron himself has said that the past couple of weeks aren’t up to his standard, but that doesn’t necessarily sound an alarm.”
The Bills have been gashed for some big plays on the ground and they rank No. 32 in yards yielded/rush (5.22). Conversely, the Jets need to wake up a dormant rush attack and there is too much talent here to be kept down for long. The Jets have averaged 2.7 yards per carry the last two weeks after picking up 4.0 yards a rush the first three weeks.
When Downing was the OC in Tennessee (2021-22), Ulbrich said the Titans were “tough” and “ruthless” and they “finished” and ran the ball and “played on their terms.” Expect Downing to instill a similar style of offense to when he was the Titans OC, which appealed to Ulbrich.
^Bills vs Jets MNF Info
When: Monday, 8:15 PM ET
Where: MetLife Stadium
TV: ESPN, ABC
Radio: http://www.siriusxm.com/nfl
Stream Option: ESPN+
Bills vs Jets Series History
The Bills lead all-time series 69-58 (including postseason) but they have split the past four. Aaron Rodgers made his Jets debut at home in Week 1 last year and went down with a season-ending injury just four plays in. But the Jets won 22-16 in overtime on a Xavier Gipson 65-yard punt return for a score. New York’s aggressive defense forced four turnovers from Buffalo’s Josh Allen, who was picked off three times by Jordan Whitehead.
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2023 Jets vs Bills, Week 11
I think it’s fair to suggest that this season is not going exactly as any of us suspected it might prior to Week 1. MyBookie Sportsbook NFL Odds, American Football NFL Lines | New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills
There have been countless surprises coming our way each week, with some of the preseason favorites simply not living up to expectations, which, in fairness, are sometimes a little too lofty. The Buffalo Bills have to be included in the group of teams that are falling well below expectations, with their chances of making the playoffs not looking particularly great at this point. Their issues are perhaps not as bad as what the New York Jets, their NFC East Division rivals, are experiencing, but either way, both of these teams need a win in the worst way possible. They will meet up in Orchard Park on Sunday afternoon, hoping that a win might set them on the right path. The Bills are favored by 7, with the point total set at 39 ½.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills Game Info
When: Sunday, November 19 at 4:25 PM EST
Where: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park
TV: CBS
New York Jets
The New York jets came into the new season filled with hope after landing the services of Aaron Rodgers. That all evaporated rather quickly, with the MVP QB going down with an injury in the first series of the season. There is talk that he may return ahead of schedule in December, but by then, it might be too late to do anything to save his team. The Jets come into this weekend sitting at 4-5. They did have a positive streak going at one point, winning 3 in a row, but that has since come to an end and they come into this game on the heels of back-to-back losses to the Chargers and Raiders, where they managed a total of just 18 points across the 2 games. The defense has done a decent job of keeping the Jets in games, but that can only work for so long when the offense is not doing their part.
Buffalo Bills
What is going wrong in Buffalo? That is the question that a lot of fans and media types are asking after a 5-5 start to the season. Let’s not forget that the Bills came into this season as one of the prohibitive favorites to win the Super Bowl, but of they continue to play the way they have been, there is no guarantee that they will even make it in via the Wild Card. There is a lot of blame to go around, but it was offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey taking the hit, as he was relieved of his duties after the most recent loss to the Denver Broncos in a game that the Bills started as a 7 ½ point favorite. There is still plenty of time for the Bills to put things right, but a loss this weekend could prove to be a fatal blow given the current state of the conference.
If you want more info on the stats and betting trends for both teams, we have you covered there. We will create another article delivering all that info, as well as delivering a score prediction of our own.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: Team Stats & Betting Trends
We are at the stage of the NFL season where looking at the playoff standings suddenly doesn’t seem like a bad idea. We are now in the second half of the season, and you have to say that there are some surprises to be found when looking at how things are going in both conferences. Whenever it seems as though a definite favorite is emerging, something happens to change that feeling. One of the biggest surprises at this point of the season is the performance of the Buffalo Bills, a team that came into the season as one of the favorites to challenge for the Super Bowl. If the season were to end today, they would be out, so they really need to get back to winning, which they will try to do this weekend at home to the New York Jets, who have problems of their own. The Bills are favored by 7, with the point total set at 39 ½.
New York Jets Stats and Trends
Heading into the season, the feeling was that the Jets were solid on the defensive side of the football. By acquiring MVP Aaron Rodgers from the Packers and making some moves to bolster the offense, the Jets quickly became a sexy dark horse favorite among bettors. Losing Rodgers in the opening series of the season changes everything, and it is now perhaps no real surprise that they are close to the bottom in passing yards (179 YPG) and points scored (16 PPG). The defense is keeping them in games, surrendering just 19 PPG (7th).
With how things have gone this season, the Jets are now just 4-11 SU in their last 15 games, as well as being 2-5 SU in their last 7 versus the Bills. They have also managed just 2 wins in their last 9 road games. The Jets have been decent against the spread, covering in 4 of their last 6 games versus the Bills. The UNDER has hit in 11 of their last 13 conference games.
Buffalo Bills Stats and Trends
When a team that is expected to challenge for a championship ends up struggling, someone has to take the fall. For now, it is OC Ken Dorsey taking the hit, as he was relieved of his duties earlier in the week, with the hope being that the move might light a fire under the offense. The stats are not totally horrible, suggesting a turnaround might be possible. The Bills are top 10 in passing yards per game (253 YPG) and points scored (26 PPG), with the running game sitting just outside the top 10. The Bills are surrendering 18 PPG, good for 5th overall.
Prior to the start of the season, the Bills were on an 8-1 SU run, which makes their 5-5 start to the season all the more surprising. They have dominated the Jets, though, and will look to make a point this coming Sunday, The spread has been an issue, with the Bills failing to cover in each of their last 6 games, as well as being 1-4 ATS in their last 6 conference games. The UNDER has hit in 4 of their last 5 at home.
Jets vs Bills NFL Odds, Expert Pick and Score Prediction
While there is the chance that the Bills offense might suddenly come to life, I think we are looking at a lower scoring affair here. I do like Buffalo to win and cover, but I am also taking the UNDER.
New York Jets 13, Buffalo Bills 24
2023-24 NFL Conference Championship Odds
Odds to Win 2024 AFC Championship
| AFC Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | +234 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +530 |
| Miami Dolphins | +560 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +820 |
| Buffalo Bills | +920 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +1075 |
| Cleveland Browns | +1175 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +2700 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +3500 |
| Houston Texans | +3600 |
| New York Jets | +6800 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +9000 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +10000 |
| Denver Broncos | +14000 |
| Tennessee Titans | +15000 |
| New England Patriots | +46000 |
| AFC Lines to Win | |
Odds to Win 2024 NFC Championship
| NFC Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | +222 |
| San Francisco 49ers | +222 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +480 |
| Detroit Lions | +510 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +1700 |
| New Orleans Saints | +3000 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +3200 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +6600 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +7000 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +10000 |
| Green Bay Packers | +11000 |
| Washington Commanders | +15000 |
| Chicago Bears | +30000 |
| Arizona Cardinals | +50000 |
| New York Giants | +55000 |
| Carolina Panthers | +65000 |
| NFC Lines to Win | |
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