It’s a great time to be a soccer fan, as we are about to have two major tournaments taking place at the same time.
The European Championships are already underway in Germany, with the Copa America set to begin later this week.
My Analysis
The Copa America has been around since 1916, but it formally changed the name to the current one in 1975. The tournament is open to the member nations of CONMEBOL but has essentially been dominated by teams from South America. It is Argentina who come in as the reigning champions, but there are 15 other teams who will be looking for a shot at glory.
The United States is once again part of the tournament, and while they will serve as the host nation this year, they are not considered to be among the favorites to win it. The question then is how far they will go.
The US will start their Copa America journey in Group C alongside Uruguay, Panama, and Bolivia. How will they do? Let’s break it all down, while also looking at their odds to get out of the group and potentially win it all.
^Game 1: USA -526 vs Bolivia +1400
The Americans will open their tournament with a Saturday night game against Bolivia, which might well be the perfect way for them to begin. Since winning the Nations League with a 2-0 win over Mexico, the US has been up and down.
They followed up their 3rd straight Nations League win with a 5-1 loss at the hands of Colombia. The general feeling was that they could be in trouble against Brazil, who they met in a friendly a few days ago, but they surprised a lot of folks by getting a 1-1 draw.
Bolivia comes into this tournament on a poor run of form, losing each of their last 3 games and getting outscored 7-1 in the process. They are huge underdogs in this group and could be going home sooner rather than late, but they will give the Americans a fight.
The pressure is all on the US here, as they enter the game favored by 1 ½ goals. They will want to get the tournament off to a strong start, especially playing at home. An early goal would help settle the nerves in what will, I believe, eventually be a comfortable win.
Copa America Prediction to Bet: USA 2-0 Bolivia Draw: +550 // Total O/U: 2.5 When: June 20, 6 PM EST |
Game 2: USA -230 vs Panama +580
The last time these two teams met was in the 2023 Gold Cup, with that game ending in a 1-1 tie. Prior to that, the US had dominated the previous 2 home meetings with Panama, beating them both times and outscoring them 11-3 over the 2 games. Playing on home soil again suggests that the US might well be heading toward another win in this one.
The advantage that Panama has is that they have already been playing competitive games ahead of this tournament, with their World Cup qualifying group already underway. They have won both group games to this point, albeit against much lesser opposition than what they will face in this tournament.
They could already be in a hole coming into this game, as they open the Copa America against Uruguay.
This is a game that the US should win without breaking too much of a sweat, but they cannot go into it with any sort of complacency.
Copa America Prediction to Bet: USA 3-1 Panama Draw: +320 // Total O/U: 2.5 When: June 27, 6 PM EST |
Game 3: USA vs Uruguay
This has the potential to be the toughest game in the group to predict, mostly because both teams could well have secured their entry into the next round by the time it gets played. The US and Uruguay are essentially co-favorites to come out of the group. Uruguay has the edge at odds of -138 to win Group C, while the US are currently sitting at -138.
As mentioned, the expectation is that both teams will have 6 points coming into this one, and how they line up could well depend on how the other groups look. Will either team be inspired to top the group and potentially face a tougher opponent in the quarterfinals, or will both be happy to experiment with their lineups and settle for a tie?
The group winner very often gets an easier draw in the knockout stages, but once you get down to the final eight, there really isn’t such a thing as an easier draw. I think these two will be happy to go with a share of the spoils in this one.
Copa America Prediction to Bet: USA 1-1 Uruguay Draw: TBA // Total O/U: TBA When: July 1, 6 PM EST |
How Far Will the United States Go in Copa America?
Let’s be honest, everyone is basically believing that we will have Argentina and Brazil meeting in the final, which is exactly what we saw at the last Copa America.
We did see Chile win back-to-back tournaments in 2015 and 2016, beating Argentina both times, so could the US spring the surprise and walk away with the trophy? My opinion is that we won’t.
The Americans will almost certainly get out of the group stage, as they should already have qualified for the knockout phase with wins over Bolivia and Panama before getting to their toughest matchup against Uruguay.
What we do know is that the top 2 teams in Group C will face one of the top 2 in Group D. Realistically, that means that the US would likely need to face either Brazil or Colombia in the quarterfinals, neither of which seem particularly appetizing.
The bookies tend to agree that this is where the United States will bow out of the Copa America, as they have the US at odds of -152 to go out in the quarterfinals.
If you think they can get past a tough opponent and go out in the semis, you can get that at odds of +550. In terms of winning it all, the United States are currently listed at +1175 to win Copa America.
^2024 Copa America Winners Odds
- Argentina +173
- Brazil +222
- Uruguay +490
- Mexico +1125
- Colombia +1150
- USA +1175
- Ecuador +1575
- Chile +2800
- Peru +5000
- Paraguay +6600
- Canada +6600
- Venezuela +7000
- Costa Rica +10000
- Jamaica +15000
- Bolivia +17000
- Panama +22000
— CONMEBOL Copa América™️ ENG (@copaamerica_ENG) June 12, 2024
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