Champions League Odds: Aspects that can influence the Lines

If you have been following the progress of the Champions League, while also keeping an eye on the odds, you will have noticed that things are changing from week to week.

For example, it was Manchester City and Real Madrid who started the competition as the favorites to win it all, but both are heading in the wrong direction right now, allowing others to make an upward move.

Champions League Betting Analysis

How can these odds change so dramatically in such a short period of time?

There are several factors that come into play with the Champions League odds for both the tournament as a whole, as well as the individual game odds, so let’s get into it.

Performance as a Whole

You might imagine that the bookies live in some sort of vacuum and only focus on the games played in the Champions League when setting the odds. While that is certainly a factor, they also look at how teams are performing in their domestic leagues.

Sure, in many cases, we are looking at a different level of competition, but it can still give some idea to the confidence of each team and how they might perform moving forward.

Right now, Manchester City are digging themselves into a deep hole in both the EPL and CL, so it makes sense that the bookies might not be ready to make them huge favorites. On the flipside, Liverpool is now the favorite to win it all, thanks in large part to them leading the CL and Premier League tables.

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Champions League Odds provided by MyBookie

Goal Difference

In terms of individual bets for each game, teams are judged on what they have delivered in front of goal, as well as in defense of their own goal.

A prime example here is Inter, a team that has managed to score just 7 goals through their opening 5 games in the Champions League, while surrendering 0.

That shows that they are not an offensive powerhouse, but that their defense is also near impossible to break down. The bookies are not going to set the total goals at a high number for a team that tends to get caught up in tight games where goals are at a premium.

Alternatively, Barcelona has seen 23 total goals scored in their 5 CL games, so the chances are that their totals will be on the higher side of things. Be sure to look at goal differences and total goals when making your wagers.

Haaland ⚖️
Gyökeres ⚖️
Raphinha ⚖️
Wirtz ⚖️
Kane ⚖️

Lewandowski clear 👏#UCL pic.twitter.com/TgJzXcqX6z
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) November 29, 2024

League Standing

This becomes a little more important with each passing week, and all because of the new format of the tournament. The top 8 teams in the league automatically move on, while teams 9 through 24 go into a playoff.

A team sitting too close to the cut line is going to start getting a little more desperate and might open things up to go all out for a much-needed win, which will have an impact on the game odds. Similarly, a team performing unexpectedly well, such as Brest, might play a tighter, more compact game as they try to maintain their current standing.

It all becomes like a chess game, where we all need to figure out the moves each team will make and then compare that to the odds set by the bookies.

Liverpool are the first team to confirm their place in the round of 16 or knockout phase play-offs ⚽#UCL pic.twitter.com/ebUtmFxFeW
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) November 27, 2024