It’s easy to get carried away with the events of the opening few weeks of the NFL season, forgetting that the race to the Super Bowl is a marathon and not a sprint.
You have a handful of unbeaten teams heading into Week 4, but there is a good chance that number will be cut after this weekend, and also a chance that some of those teams might not even be in the playoff conversation once we get to the end of the regular season.
My NFL Betting Analysis in the Week 4
Similarly, teams that are out to a slow start may still find their feet and make a run the rest of the way.
This weekend, one of the unbeaten teams, the Kansas City Chiefs, will be on the road to go up against the LA Chargers, looking to continue their march toward a three-peat.
The Chiefs are currently sitting as a 7-point road favorite, with the total set at 40.
^Kansas City Chiefs Odds -370
Mike Danna did not practice today.
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) September 26, 2024
After the opening 3 weeks of the season, the Super Bowl champs are sitting with a perfect 3-0 record, but I think everyone can agree that they have looked pretty far from perfect.
In fact, there are some who would suggest that a couple of those wins have come courtesy of a pair of rather dodgy pass interference calls going in their favor.
The scary thing, though, is that we all know that this team can be better, so what is going to happen when they do get on track?
Going back to last season, the Chiefs are now 9-0 in their last 9 games, as well as being the winners of each of their last 5 road games.
They have also won 5 in a row on the road against the Chargers.
KC has covered the spread in 8 of their last 9 games and the UNDER has hit in 6 of their last 7 meetings versus teams from the AFC West.
^LA Chargers Odds +280
We were all of the belief that the Chargers would be better with Jim Harbaugh on the sideline, and that has certainly been the case to this point.
They started the season with back-to-back wins before seeing their perfect record come to an end on the road in Pittsburgh last weekend against a smothering Steelers D.
The Chargers lost Justin Herbert and Joey Bosa to injury in that game, with both players listed as questionable for this weekend, so look for their status before you wager.
The Chargers are just 3-9 SU in their last 12 games, but that is a stat we can probably ignore at the moment.
They have also won just once in their last 6 games at home, but again, the tide appears to be turning.
The UNDER has hit for the Chargers in 10 of their last 12 conference games.
^thursday’s #KCvsLAC injury report pic.twitter.com/pMMhBkAXli
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) September 26, 2024
Kansas City Chiefs vs LA Chargers Betting Prediction
I am a little bit on the fence with this one as I await the status of Herbert and Bosa.
I think they are likely to start, but you have to wonder how effective they might be. I am going to take the Chargers to cover in a losing cause, plus I also like the UNDER in this one.
Kansas City Chiefs 21, LA Chargers 17
^Chiefs vs Chargers Info
Date & Time: Sunday, September 29 at 4:25 PM EST
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood
TV: CBS
Chiefs vs Chargers Standings in the AFC West Standings
| AFC WEST | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | W | L | T | % | PF | PA | Home | Road | Strk |
| Chiefs | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 75 | 62 | 2-0-0 | 1-0-0 | 3W |
| Chargers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 58 | 33 | 1-0-0 | 1-1-0 | 1L |
| Raiders | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 | 58 | 81 | 0-1-0 | 1-1-0 | 1L |
| Broncos | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 | 52 | 46 | 0-1-0 | 1-1-0 | 1W |
W: Games Won | L: Missed Matches | T: Tied Matches | %: Percentage Victories | PF: Total Points For | PA: Total Points Against | HOME: Home Record | ROAD: Road Record | Strk: Streak
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2023 Chargers vs Chiefs, Week 7
The Los Angeles Chargers head to Kansas City hoping to make up ground in the AFC West. Coming off a touch Monday night loss to Dallas, Justin Herberts and his mates believe they’re good enough to take down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Will Herbert and the Bolts pull off the upset win? Or will Kansas City make it six straight?
MyBookie offers the game prediction plus NFL betting odds, analysis, along with a free pick for Los Angeles Chargers versus the Kansas City Chiefs which are playing on Week 7 of the NFL season.
Chargers vs Chiefs Odds and Betting Prediction for this Week 7 Matchup | MyBookie NFL Week 7 Regular Season Preview
Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs | NFL Week 7
ATS Odds: Chiefs -5.5
Money line Odds: Chargers +191 / Chiefs -239
Over/Under Odds: 48
Sunday, October 22nd, 2023 at 4:25 pm ET | CBS/Paramount
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Why Bet on Chargers versus Chiefs
There are a couple of reasons to back the Chargers over the Chiefs. First, the Bolts always play the Chiefs tough in Kansas City. Chargers versus Chiefs has become one of the top rivalries in the AFC.
Second, Justin Herbert is playing great football. Herbert is completing close to 69% of his passes for 1,333 yards and has thrown 9 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions.
Another reason to back the Bolts to at least cover? The Chargers D has stepped it up in the last couple of games, holding the Raiders and the Cowboys to 17 points.
Los Angeles Chargers Offensive Averages
- Total Yards: 365.4
- Passing Yards: 259.0
- Rushing Yards: 106.4
- Points Scored: 25.4
- Turnovers: 3
Los Angeles Chargers Defensive Averages
- Total Yards: 391.6
- Passing Yards: 289.0
- Rushing Yards: 102.6
- Points Scored: 24.8
- Takeaways: 7
Why Bet on Chiefs versus Chargers
Since losing their first game of the season to the Detroit Lions, the Kansas City Chiefs have rolled to 5 straight wins. Kansas City isn’t just beating teams with Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Isaiah Pacheco.
The defense has dominated. No team has scored more than 21 against the Chiefs and that team was 5-1 Detroit. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense is playing lights out, which means the Bolts’ offense will struggle to score on Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs Offensive Averages
- Total Yards: 382.3
- Passing Yards: 263.8
- Rushing Yards: 118.5
- Points Scored: 24.5
- Turnovers: 9
Kansas City Chiefs Defensive Averages
- Total Yards: 284.0
- Passing Yards: 183.8
- Rushing Yards: 100.2
- Points Scored: 14.7
- Takeaways: 9
Kansas City Chiefs vs L.A. Chargers Final Betting Prediction
Don’t expect a shootout. Kansas City can score 30 or more on most teams, but history tells us the Chargers defense plays Patrick Mahomes tough. Not only that, but KC’s D is playing great football.
So we should be in line for a low-scoring, under game, which means the pick is to take the points on the Chargers. Los Angeles is 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 head-to-head meetings in Kansas City.
The Chiefs should win. But KC gets the victory via 3 to 4 points, definitely not by 6 or more. Take the points on the Bolts to cash.
NFL Week 7 TNF Pick: ATS L.A. Chargers +5.5 / UNDER | Bet Chargers vs Chiefs
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game
Los Angeles Chargers Last 5
| Date | OPP | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 10/1/23 | @ LV | L17-13 |
| 9/28/23 | vs DET | L34-20 |
| 9/24/23 | vs NO | W18-17 |
| 9/17/23 | @ ATL | L25-24 |
| 9/10/23 | @ CHI | W38-20 |
Los Angeles Chargers Injury Report
| Name | Position | Status | DATE |
|---|---|---|
| De’Vondre Campbell LB | Questionable | Oct 18 |
| Darnell Savage S | Questionable | Oct 18 |
| Eric Stokes CB | PUP-R | Oct 18 |
| Aaron Jones RB | Questionable | Oct 19 |
| Jaire Alexander CB | Questionable | Oct 19 |
AFC West Standings
| Team | W | L | T | Strk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | 5 | 1 | 0 | L1 |
| LVLas Vegas Raiders | 4 | 2 | 0 | W1 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 3 | 3 | 0 | W2 |
| Denver Broncos | 1 | 5 | 0 | L4 |
Kansas City Chiefs Last 5
| Date | OPP | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 10/12/23 | @ KC | L19-8 |
| 10/8/23 | vs NYJ | L31-21 |
| 10/1/23 | @ CHI | W31-28 |
| 9/24/23 | @ MIA | L70-20 |
| 9/17/23 | vs WSH | L35-3 |
Kansas City Chiefs Injury Report
| Name | Position | Status | DATE |
|---|---|---|
| Greg Dulcich TE | Doubtful | Oct 18 |
| Justin Simmons S | Reserve sus | Oct 18 |
| Baron Browning LB | PUP-R | Oct 18 |
| – | ||
| – |
NFL Odds
Los Angeles Chargers
Super Bowl Odds to Win: +3200
AFC Conference Odds to Win: +1325
Kansas City Chiefs
Super Bowl Odds to Win: +470
AFC Conference Odds to Win: +250
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends
- Gerald Everett has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.35 Units / 77% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the TD Passes Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 48% ROI)
- Josh Palmer has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Jerick McKinnon has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Jerick McKinnon has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Noah Gray has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 away games (+10.25 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 11 away games (+8.90 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games at home (+8.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have scored first in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.35 Units / 28% ROI)
I have read enough, I need to place my bet now. What to do?
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