Don’t Just Watch, Wager! Preakness Stakes Betting Lines & Handicapping Tips

Previous Betting News

Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming is the -140 favorite to win the Preakness Stakes, the second leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown, on Saturday at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. The last horse to win the first two legs was American Pharoah in 2015 and of course went on to win the Triple Crown. Although in 2016 it was a very different result, this year could be a lot different and we might just see another Triple Crown winner. Let’s take a look at what the Horse Betting Odds have to say for this year.

How To Handicap the 2017 Preakness Stakes

Last year we had three different horses win the Triple Crown races. Jockey Mario Gutierrez rode a magnificent race taking the favored Nyquist to the front of the pack to win the 142nd Run for the Roses in 2016. The race went as expected as the top 4 odds leaders finished in top 4 order. Alas, in the Preakness Stakes, Exaggerator and jockey Kent Desormeaux chased down, passed, and owned the final stretch as a tiring Nyquist ran out of gas after matching the early speed of Uncle Lino. Yet another horse, Creator, went on to win the Belmont.

Before that, the last Preakness winner who didn’t win the Derby was Oxbow in 2013. Sent off at 15-1 in the Preakness, the second longest shot in the field, the sixth-placed Derby finisher stunned the crowd by leading gate to wire. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas and ridden by Gary Stevens, Oxbow crossed the wire 1 ¾ lengths in front, while Kentucky Derby winner and race favorite Orb finished fourth.

The problem for the 2017 Preakness owners, trainers, jockeys, horses, and bettors is that the 2017 Kentucky Derby didn’t decide as much for us as in some years it does. A good part of that was due to this Derby’s heavy slop, a condition that can skew any horse race.

One of the favorites usually does win the Preakness. Since 1873, the post-time favorite has won over 50 percent of the time (45 percent since 1960), well above the 33 percent norm across all American races. If one were to put down a $2 win bet on each Preakness favorite, they would have netted a 16 percent return on their investment. Over the last 56 races, 66 percent of Preakness winners are one of the two betting favorites. Currently the second favorite is Classic Empire (+250), who was fourth in the Kentucky Derby.

In addition, since 1990 every Preakness winner has recorded a Beyer Speed Figure of 100 or higher in its career. Always Dreaming and Classic Empire are the only two in the current field to accomplish this. Classic Empire last hit the century mark in his BC Juvenile win in November. Always Dreaming marked a 102 figure in his Derby victory.

One other challenge with handicapping the Preakness is the new runners who skipped the Derby. Several horses that skipped this year’s Derby have the advantage of being rested, including Cloud Computing, Conquest Mo Money, Multiplier, Senior Investment and Term of Art. Lancaster Bomber, from the barn of Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien, finished fourth in the English 2000 Guineas on May 6, the same day as the Derby.

Also, unlike the traffic-choked 20-horse field in the Derby, the second leg of the Triple Crown is limited to 14 horses running a shorter distance of 1 3/16 miles. Only three times in the last 27 years has the Preakness winner missed the Derby and that includes Rachel Alexandra crushing fillies in the Kentucky Oaks the day before the 2009 Derby and beating the boys 15 days later.

Previous Betting News

In horse racing betting, handicappers know that it is the pace that makes the race. Every single thoroughbred in the world has a running style that they are comfortable with and which allows them to be their best. Some like to get to the front and set the pace, while other sit just off the lead and wait to pounce. Then there are those horses who slowly but surely build up a head steam, mowing down the competition as they head down the home stretch. The pace is something that you definitely need to look at when handicapping, but there are also other things to take into account before placing your 2018 Preakness Stakes Betting ticket.

Horse Racing Betting Tips to Handicap the 2018 Preakness Stakes

When: May 19, 2018
Where: Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore, Maryland, U.S.
Distance: 1 3⁄16 mi (9.5 furlongs; 1,900 m)
Surface: Dirt
Purse: $1.5 million

Track Conditions

If you watched the Kentucky Derby a couple of weeks ago, you will have seen the horses race on a sloppy Churchill Downs track that was as far from perfect as it gets. Some horses love the slop, while others hate the feeling of the mud being thrown in their face. Justify proved that he didn’t mind it that much, but it’s also worth remembering that he led from start to finish, which meant that he did not need to experience the feeling of getting splashed.

If the weather gets rough this weekend at Pimlico, as it is expected to, Justify may get a dose of mud in the face, as Quip is a horse that likes to get out in front quickly. Good Magic is another one who proved in the Derby that he can handle the slop, finishing second with a strong effort, which is why he’s among the Horse Racing Betting favorites to win the Preakness Stakes.

Speed Ratings

When you are using the past performances to handicap any race, make sure that you pay attention to the speed ratings. What you need to do here is take the best two numbers from a horse last 3 races to create an average speed rating. Why is this important? Statistics show that the winner of 60% of all races comes from one of the top three speed horses in the field.

This is a great way to not only pick winners but to also identify longshot picks that might be able to get in the money and boost your exotics wagers.

The Jockey

It is easy to dismiss the jockey, as it is the horses who get all the glory in racing. People make the argument that the best race car driver in the world can’t possibly win if he is in a lesser car, but it happens all the time. A good jockey knows how to steer clear of trouble and get his horse in a position where he has the best shot at winning.

There is a reason why the best jockeys in the world win on a consistent basis, and it’s not just because they get to ride the most talented horses. You should also look at jockey/trainer combos to find out who have the best winning percentages when put together.

Workouts

In the week leading up to the Preakness Stakes, all the horses that will be in the race will be on the Pimlico track getting some workouts in. In your past performances, those workouts will be listed, and they will give you an excellent idea of how well a horse has been training in the lead up to the race.

These workouts can often serve as an indicator that a horse is either ready to put in a great performance or have an off day, no matter what the Horse Racing Betting Odds say.

Last 10 Preakness Stakes Winners

Previous Betting News

The weekend after a Triple Crown doesn’t produce much in the way of stakes racing action, but this Saturday, there are a few exciting stakes races. Belmont runs the Seek Again Stakes on Saturday and Santa Anita runs the Grade 3 Honeymoon and the Grade 2 Santa Maria Stakes. Then on Sunday, the Cinema Handicap happens at Santa Anita.

Check out top plays and Horse Racing Odds for the Top Stakes Races of the Week from Saturday, May 22nd to Sunday, May 23rd. You can also visit our Online Racebook to place your bets on active racetracks.

Top Stakes Races for the Week – Four Stakes Races Highlight the Weekend

Top Stakes Races

When: Saturday, May 22 – Sunday, May 23

Belmont Park – Sunday, May 23

Seek Again Stakes – 1 mile turf – $100,000

This is the first time Belmont is running the ungraded Seek Again Stakes. The race will go at 1 mile over Big Sandy’s turf course for a purse of $100,000. Although ungraded, we should expect plenty of talented runners to enter the starting gate. Trained by Bill Mott, Seek Again won the 2013 Grade 1 Hollywood, finished second behind Horse of the Year Wise Dan in the Grade 1 Turf Classic and then in 2014 won the Grade 2 Fourstardave Handicap.  

Santa Anita Park – Sunday, May 23

Grade 3 Honeymoon Stakes – 1 1/8 miles turf – $100,000

Connections for at least 7 horses are planning to run in the Grade 3 Honeymoon on Saturday. Preakness winning trainer Mike McCarthy is back in California. McCarthy puts the saddle on Midnight Diva, who broke her maiden on dirt in her last. Sired by Midnight Lute and from a Dance With Ravens broodmare, Diva should love the grass.

Other contenders scheduled to run are Richard Mandella trained Golden, Phil D’Amato trained Going Global, and Madone from the Simon Callaghan barn. Madone has won 4-of-5. Her only loss was in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. 

Grade 2 Santa Maria Stakes – 1 1/16 miles dirt – $200,000

The week’s feature race is the Grade 2 Santa Maria Stakes at Santa Anita Park. Just 3 horses are confirmed for the race, As Time Goes By from the Bob Baffert barn, Ce Ce trained by Mike McCarthy, and Carla Gaines trained Miss Stormy D. 

2020 Apple Blossom winner Ce Ce won her first race of 2021, an allowance, on April 17. No doubt, the McCarthy runner will go off the chalk on Saturday. 

Santa Anita Park – Sunday, May 23

Cinema Stakes – 1 1/8 miles turf – $100,000

No word yet on which horses will run in the 2021 Cinema Stakes. The race is exclusively for three-year-olds. Expect the best three-year old turf runners on the West Coast to step into the starting gate. Past winners have included Sharp Samurai, Hariboux, Neptune’s Storm, and River Boyne. 

Previous Betting News

This Saturday, Oaklawn Park runs the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, a 1 1/16 mile dirt race for a $1,000,000 purse. The Rebel is the signature race on an Oaklawn card that includes the $500,000 Essex Handicap and the Grade 2 Azeri Stakes. Check out top plays and Horse Racing Odds for the Top Stakes Races of the Week from Saturday, March 13th. You can also visit our Online Racebook to place your bets on active racetracks.

Horse Racing Odds & Picks for March 13th Races

Top Stakes Races for the Week 

When: Saturday, March 13

Gulfstream Park

Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie Stakes – 6 ½ furlongs dirt – $100,000

The Hurricane Bertie will likely attract at least seven runners, including Saffie Joseph Jr. trained Sound Machine and Pacific Gale from the John Kimmel barn. No doubt, Bill Mott trained Frank’s Rockette will go off the chalk. Rockette has finished first or second in 11-of-12. Her lone off the board finish happened in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.  

Oaklawn Park

Grade 2 Azeri Stakes – 1 1/16 miles dirt – $350,000

Connections for just four horses so far have said they will run in the Grade 2 Azeri. One of those confirmed for the race is 2020 Kentucky Oaks winner Shedaresthedevil. Trained by Brad Cox, Shedaresthedevil hasn’t raced since finishing third behind Valiance and Ollie’s Candy in the Grade 1 Spinster last October.  

Essex Handicap – 1 1/16 miles dirt – $500,000

Silver State, from the Steve Asmussen barn, is confirmed for the Essex Handicap. Expect Night Ops, Snapper Sinclair, and a few others to join Silver State in the Essex starting gate.

Grade 2 Rebel Stakes – 1 1/16 miles dirt – $1,000,000

So far, connections for seven horses have said they will run in the Rebel Stakes. The huge purse could attract at least three more runners, bringing the total to 10. Of the seven, all eyes will be on Bob Baffert Concert Tour, the San Vicente winner sired by Street Sense, and Brad Cox trained Caddo River. Sired by Hard Spun, Caddo River blew away the Smarty Jones field in his last. Robertino Diodoro is also pointing Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club winner Keepmeinmind to the Rebel. 

Santa Anita Park

Grade 2 San Simeon – 6 furlongs turf – $100,000

In the San Simeon, Grade 3 Thunder Road Stakes second-place finisher Bob and Jackie figures to go off the chalk. The Richard Baltas trained runner also finished second in the Grade 2 San Gabriel Stakes. Both of Richard Mandella’s runners, Bombard and Jolie Olimpica, will attract action. 

Grade 1 Beholder Mile Stakes – 1 mile dirt – $300,000

Kenny McPeek may run 2020 Preakness Stakes winner Swiss Skydiver in the Beholder Mile. If he does, she could go off at even money or worse. Harvest Moon, Hard Not Love, As Time Goes By, and Golden Principal are all quality runners, though. Don’t accept short odds on any horse, even Swiss Skydiver, unless you’re confident.