Mavericks with Luka Dončić as solid favorites on the NBA Odds, host the Rockets and Jalen Green in Week 2

There are four games around the NBA and the only one that doesn’t feature at least one team playing the second of a back-to-back is Houston at Dallas with the defending Western Conference champion Mavs as solid favorites on the NBA odds.

Houston at Dallas: 2024 NBA Expert Analysis in Week 2

Houston Rockets +135

Houston played two games in San Antonio this week and split them after a 106-101 win on Monday so the team is well-rested. Houston gave up six consecutive points to allow San Antonio to get within 101-99 with 36 seconds remaining. Veteran point guard Fred VanVleet, who was 3 for 13 from the field at the time, calmly drained a 3-pointer with 18 seconds remaining. VanVleet finished with 11 points.

Jalen Green

Green led the team with a season-high 36 points in Monday’s victory. He is averaging 28.8 points per game, which would be a career-high mark. Green has been inconsistent in the past, but that hasn’t been the case so far this season. He’s playing nearly as well as he did during his elite stretch late last season that nearly helped them make a push for the playoffs. Green’s 115 points are the most through the first 4 games of a season by a Rocket not named James Harden since Tracy McGrady had 132 in 2007-08. Green’s 19 made 3-pointers are the most by a Rocket through the first 4 games of a season.

After the ridiculous non-foul call against the Spurs a few days ago, it's clear that Jalen Green was focused on getting the W.

He dropped 36 on the Spurs while shooting 11/22 FG, 7/7 FG. Insane body control before the and-one finish. He's evolving into a top-tier scorer. pic.twitter.com/ai7G817W97

— Ersin Demir (@EDemirNBA) October 29, 2024

Alperen Sengun

Star center Sengun was limited by foul trouble on Monday but still contributed 12 points, 12 rebounds and five assists. Sengun was only able to play 26 minutes but recorded his third double-double in four games this season. Inefficient shooting has plagued him for most of this season, but his last three games have been against Zach Edey and Victor Wembanyama twice. Sengun has shot below 50.0% in all 4 games (38.6% overall); he shot 53.7% in 2023-24 and did not have a streak longer than 3 games of shooting below 50%.

The Rockets are 2-1 when leading by 10+ points this season and have one win by 20+ points. Last season, Houston was 36-12 in games in which they led by double-digits and had 23 wins by 10+ points, including nine by 20+. The Rockets are 1-1 when trailing by double-digits. In 2023-24, Houston was 9-35 in games in which they trailed by 10+ points and lost by double-digits 17 times, including by 20+ six times.

Houston is outscoring opponents by an average of 4.3 ppg this season. The Rockets averaged 1.1 more ppg than opponents last season (18th in NBA; 28th in 2022-23 at -7.9 per). Houston is 1-1 on the road. The Rockets were 14-27 on the road last season after going 8-33 in 2022-23.

The Statistics

The Rockets are averaging 12.5 turnovers this season. Houston averaged a franchise-low 12.7 tpg last season after giving up the most turnovers of any team over the previous three seasons combined (15.9 per). Opponents are averaging 10.8 3FGM on 35.8% shooting this season. The Rockets led the NBA in 3-point defense last season (.348) and gave up the ninth-fewest 3-pointers (12.3 per).

Dallas Mavericks -172

The Mavericks are off an impressive 120-114 win at Minnesota on Tuesday in a rematch of the 2024 Western Conference Finals. Superstar Luka Dončić, despite a leg issue that sent him to the locker room late in the first half, nailed a 32-foot three-pointer – he was 0-for-7 from long range to that point – and put the Mavericks up by eight with 1:04 to go, a lead they nursed to the finish line to move their record to 3-1.

“We expected that one to go in,” Irving said. “Those shots he shoots at the end of the game, he’s not particularly shooting well, but we know how competitive he is. When you got a guy like that, especially in the fourth quarter . . . I knew it was a great shot.”

Luka Dončić

Doncic finished with 24 points, nine assists and eight rebounds. He has dished eight or more assists in three of four games so far while pulling down at least eight rebounds in each contest.

“It got a little scary,” Dončić said after the game about his minor injury. “There are a lot of injuries happening. It’s pretty sore now. I stopped and somebody kneed me from behind. My knee went forward. It was not good feelings.”

Despite an injury scare and early-season rust, Luka Dončić delivered another clutch moment.

Dončić: "I just needed to find my rhythm. I didn’t play the whole preseason, so I need some rest. But we got the win, and that’s all that matters.”

Read more: https://t.co/aZzIqCFaQL

— Grant Afseth (@GrantAfseth) October 31, 2024

Kyrie Irving

Irving had 35 points, five assists and four rebounds in his best game of the early season. The Mavs scored 21 points in the final 7:15, when Doncic and Irving combined for 16.

“It’s just winning time,” said Irving, who scored 25 of his points in the second half. “I knew that we needed to create some separation in the game just to continue to ride on that confidence, and it worked out well for us. But we know that [Minnesota] is going to be a little bit different when we play them every single time. They’re going to make a little bit of adjustment here and there. And down the line, we’re going to see ’em pretty often.”

Irving has been impressive from beyond the arc through four games, draining multiple threes in every contest while shooting 53.8 percent (14-for-26). The Mavericks also got a great game P.J. Washington, who had 17 points and eight rebounds. They now are 3-0 this season when the forward reaches double-figure scoring (15-5 including last season). The Mavs turned the ball over just 10 times against the Wolves, who had 20 turnovers. That resulted in 25 Dallas points off of the Minnesota turnovers, 20 more than the Wolves got off the Mavs’ miscues.

Dallas was a little fortunate to get out of Minnesota with a win. The Timberwolves attempted 26 free throws to Dallas’ 18, but the Wolves made just 17 of them, with Anthony Edwards missing six free throws in a game they lost by six.

The Record against Houston

As for Thursday, expect a big game from Dončić as he is averaging 31.3 points, 10.5 rebounds and 7.8 assists in 16 career games against the Rockets (he has scored 20+ points in 15 of those 16 games, including 30+ points eight times, 40+ points four times and 50+ points once). Over his last 12 games against the franchise, he is averaging 34.9 points, 10.8 rebounds and 8.7 assists. The Mavs have won seven straight games that Dončić has appeared in against the Rockets and he has totaled 268 points in those contests (38.3 ppg, 11.6 rpg, 8.6 apg).

How to Watch Rockets at Mavericks

When: Thursday, 8:30 PM ET
Where: American Airlines Center
TV: NBA League Pass
Stream: NBA.com, NBA TV app
Radio: Tunein.com

Rockets vs Mavericks Series History

It’s the first meeting this season between the in-state rivals. Dallas has won 10 of the past 12 and three of four last season. In the most recent matchup on April 7, the Mavs won 147-136, the 15th overtime game between the teams all-time with Houston leading 8-7. The Rockets have lost five of the last six games at Dallas. Prior to that, they won seven of eight games there from 10/28/16-1/23/21.

NBA STANDINGS UPDATE:

CLE move to 5-0, OKC to 4-0

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— NBA (@NBA) October 31, 2024

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