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Milwaukee and questionable injury star Antetokounmpo host Utah in the Week 3 - 2024 NBA Expert Analysis

Milwaukee and questionable injury star Antetokounmpo host Utah in the Week 3 – 2024 NBA Expert Analysis

Written by on November 7, 2024

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The Milwaukee Bucks have been the NBA’s biggest disappointment at 1-6 and have lost six straight games as they host the Utah Jazz on Thursday night.

Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo missed Monday’s loss injured but is likely back, and his team is a solid favorite on the NBA odds in Week 3.

Opening Lines Subject to Change: Bucks -9 (total 229.5)
Expert Prediction: Bucks 119, Jazz 112
 

Utah Jazz +306

Utah started the season 0-6 but got that first win Monday in a 135-126 win at Chicago despite playing again without injured All-Star forward Lauri Markkanen. Keyonte George blew up with 33 points and nine assists. He made six 3-pointers and has now shot 23 of them in the past two games. George did most of his work late in this game, scoring 21 of his points after the break in easily his best game of the season – his second half points alone would’ve been enough for him to set a new season high.

Walker Kessler

Seven-footer Kessler recorded a double-double of 12 points and a career-high 16 rebounds. It was his third game this season with at least 12 points, 14 rebounds and four blocks while making over 80% of his shots. After struggling with consistency through Utah’s first four games, Kessler has found his groove with back-to-back double-doubles, totaling 30 points, 30 rebounds, nine blocks and two assists while missing just two shots from the field.

Kessler is leading the NBA in contested rebounds per game (7.2) and 64.2% of Kessler’s boards are contested, making that the highest in the NBA among qualified players. Opponents are shooting only 48.8% against him within 6 feet. Kessler is one of two players in the NBA to average a point/rebound double-double while also averaging 3 blocks.

Collin Sexton

Sexton added 24 points on Monday and John Collins 28 points and 13 rebounds off the bench. The injury-depleted Jazz entered as the NBA’s worst team offensively, averaging 99.8 points on 39.1 % percent shooting. Against Chicago, the Jazz shot 53.9% from the floor and were 45.7% from 3-pointer range at 16 of 35.

After a sustained shooting slump up-and-down the roster to open the season, the Jazz offense showed several signs of life Monday. The ball was moving throughout the night and shots were falling from all areas of the floor, with the result being the highest-scoring output of the season for Utah. Thirty-five assists marked a season high for the Jazz, and the baskets were spread out across the court and throughout the rotation.

Will Hardy

“There is an element of like, we’re 0-and-6, everybody’s pissed off and we’re fighting, the guys are scratching and clawing,” Coach Hardy said “At a certain point you’ve just had enough. And I think that our guys had had enough.”

The Jazz have seen big production from their bench to start the season as they are averaging 43.9 ppg from their reserves, putting them in third behind the Indiana Pacers and the Golden State Warriors. The Jazz also lead the league in free-throws made per game at 8.4 overall.

Lauri Markkanen

Markkanen missed his third straight game due to a lingering back injury but hopes to return on this road trip and it could be tonight. The 27-year-old got a huge extension on the eve of the season and struggled out of the gate, averaging 18.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 1.8 assists on 38.5% field goal shooting. Sixth man Jordan Clarkson hasn’t played since Halloween due to injury and won’t on Thursday.

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Jazz at Bucks Odds provided by MyBookie

 

Milwaukee Bucks -417

The Bucks won their first game of the season but dropped their sixth in a row Monday, 116-114 in Cleveland playing without superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. Darius Garland hit a go-ahead 3-pointer with 45 seconds left and the Cavs rallied down the stretch, outscoring the Bucks 18-8 over the final 6:06.

Damian Lillard

Lillard led the Bucks with 36 points and seven assists. Lillard has averaged 27.6 points, 6.7 assists and 4.6 rebounds while shooting 39.1 percent from downtown across 35.9 minutes per game thus far and his usage will continue to be incredibly high when Giannis is out. Lillard is the only player in the NBA this season to score at least 30 points, make at least five 3-pointers and hand out a minimum of five assists in multiple games. His 111 career games are third-most in league history.

Bobby Portis

Portis got the start on Monday for Giannis and had 21 points and season-high 18 rebounds, but starting guard Gary Trent had only four points and is shooting a brutal 28.8 percent from the field and 23.1 percent from beyond the arc for his new team. AJ Green had a breakout game with a season-high 21 points on a career-high-tying seven made 3-pointers.

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Antetokounmpo sat out with a strained adductor muscle, an injury the two-time MVP sustained during Saturday’s home loss to Cleveland. He is day-to-day but did practice on Wednesday. He has been terrific this season, shooting 62% from the field and averaging 32.2 points, 12.3 rebounds and 6.3 assists in the team’s first six games. The Bucks have yet to see All-Star swingman Khris Middleton play this season due to an ankle injury and he won’t return Thursday but is progressing to 3-on-3 work.

The Bucks are 21st in offensive efficiency (110.7 points per 100 possessions) and 26th in defensive efficiency (119.4 points per 100 possessions). Coach Doc Rivers said his team remains optimistic about its outlook despite the disappointing start, and pointed out that the numbers currently working against the Bucks would look much different once the team breaks out if its slump and wins a few games.

History has not been kind to teams that start a season with a 1-6 mark. Since 1970, 150 NBA teams have started 1-6 or worse. Only 12 of those teams made the playoffs, five of which did so with a losing record.

Doc Rivers

“We will make the playoffs,” Rivers said. I’m not worried about that. … The team’s very positive. I think they’re upbeat. No one wants to lose. We have some tough games coming up, but one win at a time. We win three or four in a row and then the numbers say if you’re 5-6 after that, you have an 80 percent chance to make the playoffs, you know? So that’s where numbers are so silly sometimes, especially early in the year. And we don’t pay much attention to them.”

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How to Watch and Bet Jazz at Bucks Odds

When: Thursday, 8 PM ET
Where: Fiserv Forum
TV: NBA League Pass
Stream: NBA.com, NBA TV app
Radio: Tunein.com

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Jazz vs Bucks Series History

Utah leads 60-49 all-time and swept the Bucks last season. The game in Milwaukee was a 132-116 upset thanks to 21 points each from Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 25 points, 10 rebounds and 11 assists for the Bucks, who were without Damian Lillard. The Bucks, who trailed 77-46 at the half, scored 44 points in the third quarter to pull within 100-90 entering the final period but the Jazz opened the fourth quarter with a 9-2 run to put it away.

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2019 Bucks vs Jazz
 

The Utah Jazz are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA but that unit will be tested on Friday night as reigning NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks make their lone visit of the year to Salt Lake City. The game opened as a pick’em on the NBA odds, but now the Bucks are -1.5 favorites.

How to Bet Bucks vs Jazz NBA Betting Lines & Game Info

  • When: Friday, 9 PM ET
  • Where: Vivint Smart Home Arena
  • TV: NBA League Pass
  • Live Stream: NBA League Pass
  • Radio: SiriusXM
  • NBA Betting Lines: Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 (Total 217.5)

Bucks vs Jazz Last Season

For the second consecutive season, the Bucks and Jazz split the season series, 1-1. Each team won its game in the series at home. Before the last two seasons, the Jazz had won seven straight games over the Bucks. Bucks guard George Hill (2016-17), forward Kyle Korver (2007-10, 2018-19) and guard Wesley Matthews (2009-10) all had stints with Utah in their careers. Korver finished the 2018-19 season with the Jazz where he averaged 9.1 points, 2.5 rebounds and 1.2 assists in 54 games.

Why Bet on Milwaukee?

The Bucks won their fourth in a row Wednesday, 129-124 at the Los Angeles Clippers in a potential NBA Finals preview – although Clips star Kawhi Leonard didn’t play. Giannis Antetokounmpo fell one assist shy of a triple-double with 38 points, 16 rebounds, nine assists, four 3-pointers, two steals an, two blocks.

He’s the first player in NBA history to reach those numbers in a game and is the first player since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976 to have 30+ points, 15+ rebounds and 5+ assists in 3 consecutive games. Antetokounmpo now has 232 points, 114 rebounds and 61 assists this season, becoming the first player in NBA history to have 200+ points, 100+ rebounds and 50+ assists through the first 8 games of a season.

George Hill matched his career-high with 6 3-pointers on Wednesday en route to scoring a season-high 24 points. Those 24 points are his most as a Buck and the most he’s scored in a game since the 2017-18 season (26 pts vs. BKN on 2/27/18). He did get elbowed with one minute left, and it immediately swelled up so monitor his status.

Eric Bledsoe recorded his second consecutive 20-point game on Wednesday as he made a season-high 4 3s and scored 20 points. In his last four games, Bledsoe is averaging 18.5 points per game while shooting 52.7% from the field. Brook Lopez blocked a season-high six shots on Wednesday, adding 11 points, 12 rebounds, three assists and one steal.

Over their last three games, the Bucks have trailed for only a total of 3 minutes and 28 seconds. During the four-game winning streak, Milwaukee has won by double digits 3 times, including twice by 20+ points, and led from start to finish in two games.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Total Score: 122.25
  • Field Goal Percentage: 47.70
  • Three-Point Percentage: 35.39
  • Free Throw Percentage: 70.19
  • Total Rebounds: 51.88
Defense
  • Total Score: 112.00
  • Field Goal Percentage: 40.97
  • Three-Point Percentage: 35.74
  • Free Throw Percentage: 76.92
  • Total Rebounds: 48.38

Why Bet on Utah?

Utah improved to 5-3 with Wednesday’s 106-104 win over the 76ers – helped that Sixers star Ben Simmons left early with an injury. Donovan Mitchell had a season-high eight assists on Wednesday, adding 24 points (10-of-23 FGs, 3-of-6 FTs) with five rebounds, one steal and one 3-pointer. Mitchell has still only had one scoring game under 20 points thus far. He’s averaging 25.5 points per game on 50.7 percent from the field.

Rudy Gobert double-doubled against the 76ers, scoring 14 points (4-of-8 FGs, 6-of-8 FTs) with 16 rebounds, three assists, three steals and one block. Gobert ended up fouling out late in the game. He matched his season-highs in both steals and assists. Bojan Bogdanovic scored 20 points on 9-of-18 shooting with six rebounds, five assists, one steal and one block. He helped ice the game with five late points.

Mike Conley struggled from the field yet again, hitting 6-for-15 along with four turnovers. Conley acknowledged that he’s still adjusting to playing with his new teammates in Utah after spending the past 12 years in Memphis.

Improving

“Oh yeah, it’s kind of a little bit out of my routine because I’ve had to watch more film on us than I can on the other teams because I’m still learning,” said Conley. “I’m still used to throwing pocket passes [to Marc Gasol]. … I’ve got a big guy now [in Rudy Gobert] who can go get it. I can throw pocket passes, but it’s a little different.”

Joe Ingles has now played 312 straight games, the longest active streak in the NBA. Also, since the start of the 2014-15 season, Ingles has played in more games (413) than anyone else in the NBA. Utah played Wednesday without backup guards Dante Exum and Emmanuel Mudiay and forward Ed Davis. He will miss a few weeks but Exum (right knee) could be back as soon as Friday vs. the Bucks.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Total Score: 100.75
  • Field Goal Percentage: 46.26
  • Three-Point Percentage: 36.94
  • Free Throw Percentage: 74.74
  • Total Rebounds: 42.50
Defense
  • Total Score: 96.36
  • Field Goal Percentage: 41.62
  • Three-Point Percentage: 31.08
  • Free Throw Percentage: 77.08
  • Total Rebounds: 41.38

Bucks vs Jazz NBA Betting Trends

  • Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Utah
  • Bucks are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games on the road
  • Bucks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games played on a Friday
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee’s last 5 games against an opponent in the Western conference
  • Jazz are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home
  • Jazz are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played in November
  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Utah’s last 8 games this season

Expert Final Score Prediction for Bucks vs Jazz

Milwaukee Bucks 108 – Utah Jazz 105

 
 
 
 

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