As we break down this Orange Bowl pick, the College Football Playoff Semifinal between #7 Notre Dame and #6 Penn State promises to be a thrilling defensive showdown, with both teams looking to secure a spot in the National Championship game.
Betting Orange Bowl Pick: Notre Dame vs Penn State Odds to Win the Match
Orange Bowl Showdown: A Bettor’s Guide to the Notre Dame vs. Penn State Matchup
2024 NCAA Division I FBS Football Season | 155th season of college football in the United States
NCAAF Bowls: Saturday, December 14th, 2024 – Monday, January 20th, 2025
Betting College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl Winning Pick
Two of the top defensive teams in all of college football throw down in the first College Football Playoff Semifinal on Thursday at the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens when 7 Notre Dame takes on 6 Penn State.
Both the Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions have earned their way to this semifinal by winning their first two CFP matchups.
The Irish went to New Orleans and blasted Georgia out of the Superdome in their last.
Penn State put the clamps on Ashton Jeanty and the Boise State Broncos in their last game.
Which team rises to the top and faces off against Texas or Ohio State for the National Championship?
Check out college football odds, analysis, and free picks for Notre Dame versus Penn State.
2025 Orange Bowl: 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (13-1) vs 6 Penn State Nittany Lions (13-2)
Thursday, January 9th at 7:30 pm ET – ESPN | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
ATS Odds: Notre Dame -2
SU Odds: Penn State +106 / Notre Dame -130
Over/Under Odds: 45
Writer’s Picks for the Orange Bowl Game
Reasons to Bet Notre Dame Versus Penn State
The Irish defense has been one of the top units in college football this season.
Notre Dame’s one loss this season came against a team they were favored to beat by 20, the Northern Illinois Huskies.
In past seasons, the loss would have sent Notre Dame to a lower level bowl because the Selection Committee would have disqualified the Irish from the playoffs.
Not this season. Since the upset loss to Northern Illinois, Notre Dame has rolled behind a fearsome defense.
The D allowed a single team to score 30 or more points, USC which scored 35 in a 49-35 ND victory in Notre Dame’s final matchup of the season.
Louisville put up 24 in a loss to the Irish and that’s it.
Notre Dame’s defense allowed two teams to score 20 points or more all season.
Georgia got 10 and high flying Indiana scored 17.
Irish Quarterback Riley Leonard Doesn’t Make Mistakes
Duke transfer Riley Leonard didn’t post awesome highlights this season but he did enough to help the Irish get to the College Football Playoff.
Leonard did so by not making mistakes.
The former standout at Durham threw 6 interceptions. That’s it.
He rarely made a bad play and instead dropped down to his outlet receiver or threw the ball away on passing downs.
Leonard’s ability to stay out of trouble is going to serve him well in this game because the Irish face a defense that’s close to their level.
If Leonard keeps his cool, which he’s done in every game up to this point, Notre Dame can win and cover.
The Irish are Patient on Both Sides of the Ball
Notre Dame is one of the most patient teams in college football.
The Irish believe in playing football the way the Houston Cougars play hoops, keep opposing teams possessions low by using the shot clock.
The Irish will use all of the 35 second play clock to their advantage when they have the ball.
If Notre Dame can get 3.5 yards per play, they’d be happy because that means that Penn State, another slow moving offense, won’t get enough chances to keep pace with Notre Dame on the scoreboard.
Expect a snail’s pace of a game.
Notre Dame Projected Starters on Offense
- WR Beau Collins
- WR Jordan Faison
- WR Jadon Greathouse
- LT Anthonie Knapp
- LG Billy Schrauth
- OC Pat Coogan
- RG Rocco Spindler
- RT Aamil Wagner
- TE Mitchell Evans
- QB Riley Leonard
- RB Jeremiyah Love
Notre Dame Projected Starters on Defense
- DE RJ Oben
- NT Howard Cross III
- DT Gabriel Rubio
- VYPER Joshua Burnham
- WLB Jack Kiser
- MLB Drake Bowen
- ROVER Jaylen Sneed
- FCB Christian Gray
- FS Xavier Watts
- BS Adon Shuler
- BCB Leonard Moore
Reasons to bet Penn State versus Notre Dame
The Nittany Lions played in the nation’s toughest conference
Is there any doubt that the best conference in college football this season was the Big Ten?
Ohio State and Penn State are in the College Football Semifinals.
Oregon ranked first all season and lost to the Buckeyes in their CFP quarterfinals matchup.
Indiana is another Big Ten team that made the College Football Playoff.
What it means is that Penn State is battle tested against much better teams than Notre Dame.
For sure, the Nittany Lions struggled against their top two Big Ten opponents, Ohio State and Oregon, but the Lions handled USC, Wisconsin, and Illinois and the loss to the Buckeyes was by 7.
Penn State’s defense held Ohio State to 20 points and Boise State to 14
As well as Notre Dame’s defense played against Georgia we have to note that the Irish was up against a Georgia team without starting quarterback Carson Beck.
Some believe Beck is the best QB prospect in April’s draft.
Even if he isn’t, facing a second string QB does wonders for a defense’s confidence.
Penn State had to play against Will Howard and Ohio State and ended up holding the Buckeyes to 20 points in a 20-13 loss.
Versus Boise State, the Lions had to stop Ashton Jeanty.
Although the Broncos tried, the Penn State D kept Jeanty to less than 4 yards per carry.
Penn State is going to have an easier time versus a Notre Dame offense that isn’t nearly as electric as Ohio State’s.
QB Drew Allar threw 24 TDs to 7 picks this season
2024 Drew Allar is a much better player than 2023 Drew Allar.
The Penn State quarterback stepped up his game this season when throwing for 24 TDs and tossing a low 7 interceptions.
Again, we must note that Penn State played in the toughest conference in college football and Allar’s stats improved from 2023 to 2024 by leaps and bounds.
Versus Boise State, Allar threw for 171 yards and 3 TDs.
He often makes the right choice and rarely forces a bad pass.
Penn State Projected Starters on Offense
- WR Harrison Wallace III
- WR Omari Evans
- WR Liam Clifford
- LT Drew Shelton
- LG Olaivavega, Ioane
- OC Nick Dawkins
- RG Sal Wormley
- RT Nolan Rucci
- TE Tyler Warren
- QB Drew Allar
- RB Nicholas Singleton
Penn State Projected Starters on Defense
- DE Dani Dennis-Sutton
- LDT Zane Durant
- LDT Dvon J-Thomas
- RDE Abdul Carter
- WLB Tony Rojas
- MLB Kobe King
- LCB Jalen Kimber
- SS Jaylen Reed
- FS Zakee Wheatley
- RCB A.J. Harris
- NB Zion Tracy
Betting c Final Pick: Notre Dame versus Penn State Line
The odds continue to go Notre Dame’s way.
The Irish defense is impressing both casual college football bettors and, so far at least, the pros.
But that will change in the next couple of days.
Don’t be surprised that when Abdul Carter announces he is playing in this game, the line flips to favor the Nittany Lions.
Penn State is the better overall team that has had to face much tougher opponents than the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Because of that, Penn State offers an overlay moneyline at +108 to win this straight up.
Pounce on the ML in what should be an under game because neither team is going to push the envelope.
NCAAF Bowl SU Pick: Penn State Nittany Lions +108
NCAAF Bowl Total Pick: Under 46.5
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^ Top^ TopBREAKING: Penn State pass rusher Abdul Carter has opted out of the Orange Bowl. This marks the first time a player has opted out of a CFP game. Sad news for College Football fans & college sports as a whole. pic.twitter.com/qdNMes0K7p
— Brady Montana (@BradyMontanaOn3) January 6, 2025
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Who Will Reign Supreme? 2025 College Football National Championship Odds Revealed!
Team | Odds |
---|---|
Ohio State Buckeyes | -370 |
Texas Longhorns | +285 |
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What is the Orange Bowl? Let’s Find Out
The Orange Bowl is one of the most prestigious college football bowl games in the United States, typically held annually in early January.
It is part of the College Football Playoff (CFP) system, where teams compete for a spot in the National Championship game. Traditionally, the Orange Bowl is played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.
The game has been a key fixture in college football since its inception in 1935, originally serving as a postseason exhibition. Over the years, it has evolved into one of the New Year’s Six bowl games, which are the most prominent and highly anticipated games of the college football season. The Orange Bowl is often matched with top-ranked teams from major conferences, and in recent years, it serves as one of the CFP Semifinals, deciding which teams will advance to the National Championship game.
In addition to its role in the College Football Playoff system, the Orange Bowl also has a rich history of hosting memorable matchups and producing exciting games. The event is known for its high level of competition and has seen many of college football’s greatest players and teams make their mark.
Fans from all over the country, especially those with ties to the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), which often has a representative in the game, flock to Miami for the event, making it a significant cultural and sports spectacle.
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2023 Orange Bowl Odds: Georgia vs Florida State Analysis & Betting Pick
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In one of the best bowl games of the 2023 bowl season, the Georgia Bulldogs are set to take on the Florida State Seminoles on Saturday. The Georgia Bulldogs come into the game with a 12-1 record on the season. Georgia won their first 12 games, and then fell in the SEC title game to the Alabama Crimson Tide. The loss snapped their winning streak, and spoiled their chance of winning three straight national titles.
For Florida State, they went 13-0 on the season. The Seminoles won the Atlantic Coast Conference regular season, and then the championship game over Louisville. The Georgia Bulldogs are -16.5 in this game over the Florida State Seminoles.
The Georgia Bulldogs are the favorites in the college football odds in this game as they are listed at -17.5. The total for this affair is set at 44.5 points.
2023 Capital One Orange Bowl Odds: Georgia vs Florida State | MyBookie Bowl Game Preview
Georgia Bulldogs vs Florida State Seminoles
ATS Odds: Georgia -17.5
Money line Odds: Georgia Line -1100 / Florida State Line +650
Over/Under Odds: 44.5
Saturday, December 30th, 2023 at 4:00 pm ET | ESPN, EPSN+
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Smart and the Bulldogs
Kirby Smart and his Georgia Bulldogs will look to finish the season once again with a win to wrap up the season. The big deal for Georgia has been their signal caller Carson Beck. He was sharp this season, with more than 3,700 yards throwing and 22 touchdowns. Beck is expected to play in this game after announcing he will return to Georgia.
His top target Brock Bowers is questionable to play in this game. He has practiced with the team during the bowl practices, but is preparing for the NFL Draft. Bowers led the team with six touchdown receptions. Dominic Lovett was strong for the Bulldogs this season with more than 570 yards receiving.
Georgia is always known for their ability to run the football. The Bulldogs saw Daijun Edwards finish the season with 11 touchdowns on the ground. The Bulldogs scored 38.4 points per game as a team in 2023.
New Look Seminoles
For the Florida State Seminoles, as they lost their quarterback Jordan Travis, and that is the reason they were not chosen to play in the College Football Playoff. The Seminoles still won their bowl game; allowing just six points in the game. But, with Travis out, Florida State’s offense suffered to just 15 points per game.
Florida State also will see Tate Rodemaker not play in this game. Rodemaker was the back up for Travis in those games, but he expects to transfer, and will not play in this game. Brock Glenn expects to get the start under center. Glenn threw just 25 passes all season.
Florida State’s Keon Coleman also will not play in this game. The former Michigan State star was outstanding, with 11 touchdowns. He is heading to the NFL Draft, along with Johnny Wilson.
Bulldogs and Seminoles
Two really good College Football teams. The Georgia Bulldogs are going to have a bit of a let down following not getting to the College Football Playoff. Florida State is really irritated, and are not going to be super excited to be playing in this game. They feel they should be playing on New Year’s Day.
But, look for a strong defense to get the job done. We are betting on the Florida State Seminoles to cover the spread in this game. The final bet for this game is the Georgia Bulldogs -16.5 over the Florida State Seminoles on Saturday!
NCAAF Orange Bowl: ATS Florida State Seminoles -3 | Bet Georgia vs Florida State Today
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Clemson is the Favorite, can they win the Bowl?
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Clemson is the Favorite, can they win the Bowl?
The No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) and No. 10 Clemson Tigers (11-2) will face off in the College Football Orange Bowl in 2022. Both teams had excellent seasons, and they’ll be hoping to end them on a high note by winning the Orange Bowl.
With a record of 11-2 this year, the Tigers, under head coach Dabo Swinney, have performed admirably, including winning the ACC Championship against North Carolina 39-10. On the other hand, the Josh Heupel-led Volunteers will be seeking to finish on a high note after going 2-2 in their last four contests, including a 56-0 win over Vanderbilt in their last game.
Oddsmakers at Mybookie have listed the Clemson Tigers as 5 points (-110) favorites in this matchup. The Tigers will have NCAAF odds of -210 on the moneyline, while the Tennessee Volunteers will be +180 underdogs. Additionally, the total has been listed on Mybookie at 63.5 (-110) points.
Clemson Tigers Look to Cap Off 2022 Season with a Win
Having won the ACC title seven times in a row, Clemson will play in its seventh Orange Bowl game overall and its first since the College Football Playoff Semifinal in 2015. Clemson enters this matchup with 11 wins to their credit, including crushing North Carolina in the ACC Championship game.
The Cade Klubnik show is here to stay as the Freshman made a commanding entrance in the ACC Championship Game by tossing for 279 yards and a touchdown while also scoring on the ground. After unseating incumbent DJ Uigalelei, the Tigers’ offense should take off with unrelenting pressure to give Klubnik more reps. Clemson’s offense is led by Will Shipley, who has rushed for 1,110 yards and 15 touchdowns this season. Overall, Clemson is averaging 34.7 points per game.
A great defensive team, Clemson only allows 20.1 points per game, but they will be hindered without star pass rusher Myles Murphy who opted out to focus on the NFL draft.
Tennessee Volunteers Primed to Walk Away Losers
Tennessee will have a few players who decide not to play in the bowl game for a variety of reasons, similar to many other teams throughout the nation. Hendon Hooker, the quarterback, is the most noteworthy player. Hendon Hooker tore his ACL, terminating his season just before the season ended. Jalin Hyatt, winner of the Biletnikoff Award, and fellow receiver Cedric Tillman decided not to participate in order to concentrate on the NFL Draft.
Despite finishing the year 9-3 ATS, the Volunteers proved they had trouble keeping up with other teams without Hendon Hooker under center as they finished 2-2 straight up and against the spread in their last four contests.
Why the Tigers will Win the Orange Bowl
It will be intriguing to see who wins this game, which looks to be a thrilling contest between two highly regarded teams. The Volunteers have had a tremendous season up to this point, but they will be without its top quarterback Hendon Hooker and wide receivers Cedric Tillman and Jalin Hyatt in this matchup.
Not only is Clemson the healthier and more talented team in this matchup, but they don’t have as many questions surrounding their program as Tennessee. The Vols’ poor passing defense, which allows 287 yards per game, proved to be their downfall versus the Gamecocks. Cade Klubnik finally gets to showcase his skills, and despite some inexperience, it would seem that the Tigers are better positioned to profit from the situation.
Clemson is 3-1 ATS in their last four contests and they should easily cover this matchup and win the game convincingly.
Bowl Season Predictions (Orange, Citrus, Rose, Sugar) | College Football Betting Analysis
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Bowl Season Predictions (Orange, Citrus, Rose, Sugar) | College Football Betting Analysis
There are now just 2 weeks remaining in the college football regular season. After that, we will get the Conference Championship Games, which will lead us nicely into bowl season. There are a ton of bowl games every single year, with some certainly more glamorous than others, and while they may not all be great, bowl season represents a real opportunity to boost our bankrolls before the National Championship Game. It is possible to start making predictions on the big bowl games now, but it is worth noting that things will change in the final couple of weeks of the season, as the top 4 now will certainly not be the same. We are going to pick out 4 of the biggest bowl games and make College Football Bowl Betting predictions on who will land where, so let’s jump right in.
Orange Bowl – December 30
The Orange Bowl pits an ACC team against one of either of the SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame. Given the year that the Irish have had, I believe we can rule them out of this one. The most obvious choice from the ACC for this one is the North Carolina Tar Heels, who are currently sitting at 9-1 on the season, as well as being 6-0 in conference play. As it stands now, their most likely opponent here would be the Alabama Crimson Tide, who are a disappointing 8-2 on the season, and perhaps a little lucky to be there.
Citrus Bowl – January 2
The Citrus Bowl pits an SEC team against a team from the Big Ten. If we start by looking at the SEC, the obvious pick would be the Ole Miss Rebels, who came close to winning the West Division this season. Over in the Big Ten, either Michigan or Ohio State will be in the playoffs, with the loser of their upcoming meeting dropping into a bigger bowl than this one. That, in my opinion, leaves the door open for the Penn State Nittany Lions to face off against the Rebels.
Rose Bowl – January 2
In this bowl, we have the Big Ten going against the PAC-12, and again I think we have a rather clear matchup here. The team that loses the Ohio State/Michigan game is almost certainly going to drop into the Rose Bowl. I have the Buckeyes winning that one, so let’s put the Michigan Wolverines in here. Who do they face? The Oregon Ducks saw their playoff come to an end last weekend, but I think this would be a nice reward for what has been a very decent season.
Sugar Bowl – December 31
Our final prediction is the Sugar Bowl, which pits the SEC against the Big 12, and again I think we have what looks to be a rather clear matchup. The LSU Tigers are heading to the SEC Conference Championship Game, but I think they are onto a beating at the hands of the Georgia Bulldogs. That will drop them out of playoff contention and into the Sugar Bowl, where they could possibly face the Kansas State Wildcats. This is another one that would be an intriguing matchup, but like we said earlier, all these predictions could change dramatically over the next 3 weeks.
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