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Penn State and Will Howard host Ohio State, with QB Drew Allar in doubt in the Week 10 - NCAAF Expert Picks

Penn State and Will Howard host Ohio State, with QB Drew Allar in doubt for the Week 10 – NCAAF Expert Picks

Written by on October 31, 2024

Featured Sports Betting Odds, NCAA Football Betting News

The marquee game of the week in college football is clearly from the Big Ten as No. 4 Ohio State visits No. 3 Penn State with the loser facing an uphill climb to reach the conference title game.

And if it’s the Buckeyes who lose, they probably won’t get there. OSU is a short favorite on the NCAAF odds.

Opening NCAAF Lines Subject to Change: OSU -3.5 (total 45.5)
Expert Prediction in Week 10: Ohio State 27, Penn State 24
 

Ohio State Buckeyes -179

Ohio State (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) nearly got caught looking ahead to this one as it escaped last week at home vs. unranked Nebraska, 21-17. Dante Dowdell’s 1-yard run and a 2-point conversion put the Huskers up 17-14. The Buckeyes got the lead back with 6:04 left when Howard threw a 9-yard touchdown pass to Quinshon Judkins.

Nebraska had the ball near midfield on its final possession after Arvell Reese was ejected for targeting for his hit on receiver Jahmal Banks. The Huskers were called for a false start and lost yards on consecutive plays before Dylan Raiola was off target with a pass intended for Isaiah Neyor and Jordan Hancock picked it off with 1:16 left to clinch.

Jeremiah Smith

Freshman star WR Smith caught three passes for 70 yards and a touchdown for OSU. Smith’s touchdown reception tied Cris Carter’s all-time record for touchdown receptions by a true freshman at Ohio State. Smith and Carter (1984) are tied with eight touchdowns. Smith surpassed David Boston on the all-time receptions list by a true freshman. Smith is second on the list with 35 catches. Boston caught 33 passes as a true freshman in 1996. Carter is first all-time with 41 catches in 1984.

Will Howard

Howard completed 13 passes in 16 attempts for 221 yards and three passing touchdowns. Howard started the game a perfect 10-for-10 before throwing an incompletion. It was the fourth time he has completed at least nine or more passes consecutively before throwing an incompletion this season.

Ohio State’s offense has scored on all 27 trips into the opponents’ red zone – only three nationally are at 100 pct. this season – with 25 touchdowns (92 pct.), including 14 rushing TDs and 10 passing. Running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins have each scored 41 career touchdowns (T3rd nationally). Henderson has 36 rushing and five receiving; Judkins has 37 and four, respectively.

The Streak

The Buckeyes have now won 33 consecutive games when forcing three or more turnovers. Coach Ryan Day is now 42-4 against Big Ten opponents with three of those losses to Michigan.

The average margin of victory in the last eight games between Ohio State and Penn State is 7.5 points, including one-point victories for Ohio State in 2017 and 2018 and a three-point PSU win in 2016. This is only the second Top 5 game between these traditional powers. The other came in 1996, a 38-7 Ohio State (No. 3) win over No. 4 Penn State at Ohio Stadium.

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Week 10 Odds provided by MyBookie Sportsbook

 

Penn State Nittany Lions +145

The big question is whether Penn State starting QB Drew Allar will play. Penn State coach James Franklin said this week the status of Allar will be a game-time decision. He is coming off a left knee injury that forced him to sit the second half of this past weekend’s 28-13 win at Wisconsin. Led by defensive ends Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau, the Buckeyes have the Big Ten’s best sack rate (9.7%).

Drew Allar

If Allar plays, his mobility could still be limited by the injury. That figures to give Sawyer, Tuimoloau and Ohio State’s other pass rushers prime opportunities to sack or pressure Allar. On the season, Allar is completing 71 percent of passes (up from 60 percent last year) for 1,640 yards and 12 touchdowns with four interceptions, adding 129 yards and three scores as a runner.

Allar has been practicing this week so it sounds like he will be a go. He has 41 career TD passes, tied for sixth in school history. His 385 completions are ninth and he’s the 12th player in school history with at least 5,000 yards of total offense.

Beau Pribula

Backup quarterback Pribula impressed at Wisconsin, completing 11-of-13 passes for 98 yards and a touchdown. A redshirt sophomore who enrolled alongside Allar in January 2022, he added 25 yards on the ground. After his first two possessions ended with punts, he helped orchestrate consecutive lengthy TD drives to put away the Badgers for the win.

“The reality is, we’re gonna have to have both guys ready,” Coach James Franklin said.

James Franklin

This marks the 20th time Penn State has started a season 7-0 and the third time under Franklin (2017, 2019). PSU is 4-0 to start Big Ten play for the eighth time and the third time under Franklin (2017, 2019). Penn State has scored at least 20 points in 10-straight games, dating back to the Rutgers game in 2023. The Nittany Lions have tallied at least 300 total yards in 10 straight games, dating back to that Rutgers game. The Lions have allowed just 30 second-half points this season and just six points in the third quarter.

Saturday’s game will be the 13th time that Penn State-Ohio State has been the featured game for ESPN’s College GameDay, taking over as the show’s most frequent matchup, breaking a tie with Alabama–LSU.

PSU is 4-7 all-time in regular season matchups where both teams are ranked in the Top 5 of the AP Poll. The Nittany Lions have played in six more matchups in bowl games and Penn State is 2-3-1 in those games. Penn State is 17-60-1 all-time against Top 5 teams, including a 15-55 record in regular season matchups. The Nittany Lions are 49-9 in Beaver Stadium since 2016, an .845 winning percentage, the eighth-best home record among Power Four teams.

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How to Watch Ohio State at Penn State NCAA Football

When: Saturday, noon ET
Where: Beaver Stadium
TV: FOX
Stream: Fox Sports Live

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Ohio State vs Penn State Series History

It’s the 40th meeting between the programs with Ohio State leading 25-14. A total of 17 of the matchup have been decided by one possession. Last year that was also the case as the Buckeyes won 20-12 at home when they were ranked No. 3 nationally and the Nittany Lions No. 7. OSU star wideout Marvin Harrison Jr., now in the NFL, made 11 catches for 162 yards and a late touchdown in the Buckeyes’ seventh straight win in the series. Penn State needed 58 minutes to convert a third or fourth down and didn’t get into the end zone until 29 seconds were left in the game. PSU failed to convert on its first 15 third-down attempts. Since Penn State joined the Big Ten in 1993, Ohio State holds a 22-8 advantage in the series, including a 9-6 record in games played at Beaver Stadium.

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2022 Ohio State vs Penn State, Week 2
 

The biggest game in college football on Saturday is from the Big Ten as No. 2 Ohio State looks to stay unbeaten and atop the national championship odds board when it visits No. 13 Penn State. The Buckeyes are better than two TD favorites. Let’s look at the preview for your favorite NCAA Football bets.

How to Bet Ohio State at Penn State NCAA Football Odds & TV Info

  • When: Saturday, noon ET
  • Where: Beaver Stadium
  • TV: FOX
  • Stream: Fox Sports Go
  • Radio: Tunein.com
  • Opening NCAAF Lines: OSU -15.5 (total 60.5)

Last Season

Last year, Ohio State beat visiting Penn State 33-24. TreVeyon Henderson ran for 152 yards on 28 carries. The Buckeyes finally finished off the Nittany Lions on Noah Ruggles’ fourth field goal, a 26-yarder with 2:41 left to make it a nine-point lead. PSU QB Sean Clifford was 35 for 52 for 361 yards and a touchdown. This is the 30th consecutive year the two teams will meet on the gridiron, all since Penn State joined the Big Ten Conference in 1993. The average margin of victory over the last six games has been 6.3 points.

Why Bet on Ohio State?

Ohio State is off a 54-10 domination of Iowa. C.J. Stroud completed 20-of-30 passes for 286 yards and four second-half touchdowns. Receivers Emeka Egbuka, Marvin Harrison Jr., Julian Fleming and Mitch Rossi each had scoring grabs in the win.

Stroud jumped Terrelle Pryor (6,177), Greg Frey (6,316), and Joe Germaine (6,370) to move into fourth place on the all-time passing yards list with 6,458 career passing yards. Stroud has now thrown for four or more scores in 12 of his 19 career starts. He is the top-rated passer in the nation in TDs (28), passing efficiency (203.9), points responsible for (168) and points resp. per game (24.0). He is also 2nd in yards per attempt (10.65) and 3rd in yards per comp. (15.21). Stroud is completing 70 pct. of his passes and he has thrown at least one TD pass in 19 consecutive games.

Harrison’s third quarter touchdown catch was his 10th of the season, tying him with Corey Brown and KJ Hill for 15th all-time in single-season touchdown receptions. Ohio State now has scored more than 20 points in 68 consecutive games, one away from tying the all-time record set by Oklahoma from 2016-21.

Kicker Noah Ruggles converted on all four field goal attempts in the opening half from 46, 41, 35 and 26 yards. He finished the day with 18 points (4 FGs, 6 extra pts.). Defensively, Ohio State had three interceptions, two by Tanner McCalister and one returned for a score by linebacker Tommy Eichenberg. The Buckeye defense allowed only 158 total yards against Iowa, the fewest since allowing 128 yards to Indiana in 2021.

Ohio State’s defense has risen to No. 2 nationally in total defense, allowing 239.9 yards per game. This is an improvement of more than 110 yards and 46 places from OSU’s seven-game stats in 2021. Ohio State has won 24 consecutive games when it forces three or more opponent turnovers, as it did with six forced vs. Iowa. The last loss came in 2014 to Virginia Tech, 35-21, despite three forced TOs.

Why Bet on Penn State?

Penn State routed a pretty good Minnesota team 45-17 last week. Sean Clifford threw for 295 yards and four touchdowns, while Nicholas Singleton led the rushing attack with 79 yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries, and Kaytron Allen notched 77 yards. Wide receiver Parker Washington recorded seven catches for 70 yards and a touchdown, and tight end Theo Johnson collected 75 yards and a touchdown on five catches.

Clifford became the career completions leader at Penn State, passing Trace McSorley (720; 2015-18) for the all-time record. Clifford has 722 career completions. Clifford earned his 29th career game with multiple touchdown passes, 15th career game with three touchdown passes and fifth career game with four touchdown passes.

Singleton scored on runs of 16 and 30 yards. It was his third game with multiple rushing touchdowns this season. He now has four touchdowns of 30 or more yards this season. Singleton now has seven rushing touchdowns, tying Saquon Barkley (7; 2015) for the second-most by a Penn State freshman. Only Noah Cain (8; 2019) has more rushing touchdowns as a PSU freshman.

The Nittany Lion defense stifled the Golden Gophers in the first half, forcing Minnesota to a 0-for-6 start on third downs and 2-for-13 overall on the game. The Gophers entered the game leading FBS in third down conversion percentage (66.2%).

Ji’Ayir “Tig” Brown continues to make big plays for the Nittany Lions. On Saturday against Minnesota, Brown picked off a pass in the third quarter and returned it 35 yards to setup a Penn State touchdown drive. The senior has had a hand in 12 takeaways in his PSU career (nine interceptions, two forced fumbles, one fumble recovery) and has helped force four takeaways in 2022 with three interceptions and a forced fumble.

Game Trends

  • Buckeyes are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
  • Buckeyes are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games in October.
  • Nittany Lions are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Nittany Lions are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Expert Prediction: Ohio State 35, Penn State 24

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