3 Reasons to Bet the Over for Super Bowl 58

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There are a few sporting events where even the most casual bettor feels the need to get in on the action. MyBookie Sportsbook | Early Analysis: 3 Reasons to Bet the Over for Super Bowl

These are things like the Kentucky Derby, Indianapolis 500, the World Cup Final, and the Super Bowl. In terms of North American sports, there is no bigger deal than the Super Bowl, but if there is one thing annoying about the championship game, it’s that there is a 2-week gap between the Conference Championship Games and the Super Bowl. Sure, we have the Pro Bowl Game filling the gap in the weekend prior to the big game, but that one pales in comparison to the game we are all waiting for. On the positive side of things, the gap between games gives bettors time to really break down all the stats and trends to find the wagers that they believe will give them the best chance of cashing in some winning tickets for Super Bowl 58. For the purposes of this piece, we are looking at the OVER and giving you guys 3 reasons why you should consider making that NFL bet. Keep in mind that we are not suggesting that the OVER will hit. These are simply reasons why you might be swayed in that direction.

Check the Trends for Both Teams

We should start out by making everyone aware that the point total for Super Bowl 58 is currently sitting at 47 ½. With that number in mind, let’s look at some trends that might point toward the OVER being the way to go in the big game. The first thing to consider is that these teams have met in the Super Bowl before, with that game coming in 2020. The Chiefs won the game by a score of 31-20, and while it fell UNDER the point total in that particular game, it would have been enough to cover here.

If we stick to looking at these teams playing in the Championship Game in recent years, you see that the OVER is 3-1 both in the actual outcome and how it would have been had the total been set at 47 ½ for each of those 4 games.

Now, this is, of course, a neutral site game for both teams, but let’s look at it instead as a road game for both, as that is essentially what it is. The Chiefs are 4-2 O/U on the road in their last 6, while the 49ers are at 3-1. When they play one another, there is also a slight edge toward the OVER, which sits at 5-4 O/U in the last 9 meetings between the two teams competing for the Super Bowl.

There is nothing here that is what I would deem to be totally convincing, but there is definitely enough in these trends to have me seriously thinking about playing the OVER.

Bet Chiefs vs 49ers to Win
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
When: Sunday, February 11, 2024, 6:30 PM
TV/Stream: CBS

Scoring is a Must in Potentially Close Games

This seems like a pretty obvious statement but take a minute to hear me out on this one. The bookies have this as being a close game, which is very likely when you consider that these two teams seem very evenly matched. When you look back at what has gone down through these playoffs, you get an idea of what I mean by scoring being a must. In tight games, the score tends to swing back and forth between both teams, with each taking turns to go into the lead.

When a team is behind, they often feel the need to make bigger plays to snatch back the lead and put the pressure on the opposing offense.

Looking back at how these two teams go to the Super Bowl this season, you see these types of games for both. The Chiefs got into a close duel with the Buffalo Bills, eventually winning that one by a score of 27-24, which would have been enough to top the OVER for this game. Similarly, the 49ers got into a scoring duel with the Detroit Lions in the NFC Conference Championship Game, coming from behind to wipe out a big deficit and win 35-31, which again would have been more than enough to take care of the OVER in this game.

Sure, both of these teams have great defenses, too, but un these types of back and forth games that have multiple score changes, we do tend to see the points begin to add up and edge ever closer to that total number. Will we get that in this game?

So Many Offensive Game Changers

You could certainly argue that both of these teams are in the Super Bowl in large part because of their defensive play. In terms of points allowed per game, both the Chiefs and the 49ers were in the top 3 in the league, so it stands to reason that both are stingy when it comes to giving up points. That said, you look at the offensive stars on both teams and you see guys that have made a career out of making big plays and putting points on the board.

With the Kansas City Chiefs, we all know what Patrick Mahomes has done since coming into the league and how he makes the spectacular look somehow ordinary. Having Travis Kelce to throw to certainly helps, and you can bet that these two will hook up on a regular basis in the big game.

For the 49ers, Brock Purdy may not have been around that long, but he has already proven that he has big play ability. In Deebo Samuel, he has a reliable receiver who can corral those deep balls, while Christian McCaffrey can beat you in a number of different ways. Yes, both defenses are sound, but when there are that many great offensive players on the field, it stands to reason that we are going to see some splash plays that lead to points hitting the board, all of which takes us back to the second point made in this post.

I am still not sure what way I am going to play the point total in Super Bowl 58, but I may just have convinced myself that the OVER is the way to go.

Super Bowl Game Picks Odds Subject to Change	SPREAD	MONEYLINE	TOTAL
Kansas City Chiefs	+2	+110	U 47.5
San Francisco 49ers	-2	-130	O 47.5

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Why Bet the Over for Super Bowl 57?

3 Reasons to Bet the Over for Super Bowl 57

When it comes to football, fans tend to fall into two sperate categories. There are those who love hard-nosed defensive battles, while other love seeing the ball aired out all over the field in a high-scoring affair. Whichever of these sides you fall on, I think we can all agree that we just hope for a close, exciting game when it comes to the Super Bowl. The championship game goes this weekend, and we have a scenario where it really could go either way. The Chiefs and the Eagles both have high-powered offenses, but they also have defensive units that can shit things down in a hurry. That makes playing the O/U a little tougher, but we are going to try and break it all down, starting with making the case for the OVER in the Super Bowl wager.

Historical Results

If you wager on a regular basis, you already know that the bookies have an uncanny knack for setting lines that are stunningly accurate. That does not change when it comes to the Super Bowl, as there is almost a 50/50 spilt when it comes to the point total outcome, with the previous 56 Super Bowls going 27-28-1 O/U.

If there is a trend to go with here, it would actually be the UNDER, as that has been the outcome in each of the last 4 championship games. The Chiefs have been in 2 of the last 3 Super Bowl games and have seen the UNDER hit in both, but when the Eagles were last in, it was the OVER that hit there, not that those games have much to do with this one.

The Kansas City Chiefs and the OVER

With Patrick Mahomes under center and some amazing targets, the Chiefs are a team that can run up the score rather quickly. They are a little hobbled on the offensive side of the football heading into the big game, but there are still reasons why you might want to consider the OVER in this one. In games where the Chiefs allowed less than 90 yards rushing, they followed that up by going 6-1 O/U in their next game. They have also seen the OVER hit in 5 of the last 7 games where they accumulated a total of over 350 yards.

The Philadelphia Eagles and the OVER

Much like their opponent this Sunday, the Eagles have an offense that can rack up the points rather quickly. With that, we often overlook the defense, but this is a very good group that has allowed a combined 14 points in their 2 playoff games this season. If defenses do indeed win championships, then that stat alone really stands out. The OVER has hit in 8 of their last 11 following a SU win, while they are 5-2 O/U in games following one where they allowed less than 150 passing yards.

This does feel like a matchup where you can make a very good case for both the OVER and UNDER. As a bettor, it is your job to look at those trends, as well as other factors, such as injuries, to determine how the scoring might go this Sunday night.