March Madness Odds: Sweet 16 Betting Analysis for Florida Atlantic vs. Tennessee

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The Florida Atlantic Owls will look to keep their dream season alive on Thursday when they take on the Tennessee Volunteers in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. Tennessee enters the game as a (-5.5) favorite after opening at (-4), while the current total is set at 130.5 points. The Vols are juiced on the moneyline at -245, while the Owls are paying out at +205 if they win the game straight up. The contest is scheduled for a 9:00 PM EST tip-off from Madison Square Garden in New York City, NY, and will be broadcast on TBS.

We will now preview the game plus our betting prediction for this Sweet 16 contest. Keep reading for college basketball betting odds, analysis, and a free pick for Furman vs San Diego State.

2023 March Madness Sweet 16 Games
No. 9 Florida Atlantic Owls vs. No. 4 Tennessee Volunteers Betting Preview

Florida Atlantic of C-USA meets Tennessee of SEC in NCAA Tourney Sweet 16
ATS Odds: Tennessee -5.5
Moneyline Odds: Florida Atlantic +192 / Tennessee -243
Over/Under Odds: 130.5 -110
When: Thursday, March 23 at 7:00 pm ET
Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
TV / Streaming: TBS

Why Bet on No. 9 Florida Atlantic versus No. 4 Tennessee?

The Tennessee Volunteers are easily the most compelling story of the college basketball season. Coach Dusty May has become a household name, and when the team appeared as though they were about to falter they have persevered. Some say that they would be fortunate to be included in the field without a conference tournament title, but their seeding on the nine line would suggest they were safely within the field.

The fact is, you don’t win 33 games by accident, and this team has a lot of the factors prognosticators seek out when identifying potential cinderellas. The Owls boast an experienced backcourt that scores well and rebounds out of the backcourt. They have height in the frontcourt that could compete with almost anyone. We should be honest that this team was likely fortunate to avoid Purdue in the second round, but that is also a part of what makes this event so exciting.

One thing that is worrisome about Florida Atlantic has been their shooting from beyond the arc during the event. This is a team that shot nearly 37% from deep during the course of the season but are just 17–58 from beyond the arc in their two tournament games. At some point, the Owls are going to need to be efficient and hit shots down the stretch and avoid lengthy cold streaks.

Florida Atlantic Owls Offensive Averages

Points/G: 71.2
FG %: 50.2
3PT%: 23.3
FT %: 71.0
Rebounds/G: 38.3

Florida Atlantic Owls Defensive Averages

Points/G: 57.8
FG %: 42.7
3PT%: 21.9
FT %: 71.8
Rebounds/G: 31.7

Why Bet on No. 4 Tennessee versus No. 9 Florida Atlantic?

It has been difficult to trust this Volunteers team throughout most of the season. Despite the metrics absolutely loving the Vols squad, they have been very hot and cold since the start of February, going just 7-7, including their two tournament victories. Having lost their star perimeter defender, Zakai Zeigler, only stoked that doubt, but it appears that Coach Rick Barnes has found a winning formula and has led this program to its first sweet 16 since 2019.

The name of the game has been defense for Tennessee all season long, and that has continued into the postseason. Both contests against Duke and Louisiana have been a grind, while the Volunteers have relied on their quality depth to lead them to victory. Santiago Vescovi, a ghost in their first-round matchup against Louisiana, showed up in the second round, while Olivier Nkamhoua had the game of his life against the Blue Devils.

Tennessee Volunteers Offensive Averages

Points/G: 71.2
FG %: 50.2
3PT%: 23.3
FT %: 71.0
Rebounds/G: 38.3

Tennessee Volunteers Defensive Averages

Points/G: 57.8
FG %: 42.7
3PT%: 21.9
FT %: 71.8
Rebounds/G: 31.7

Florida Atlantic vs Tennessee Betting Trends

Tennessee has covered 18 times in 35 games with a spread this season.
Florida Atlantic is 22-12-0 ATS this season.
The Volunteers average 6.1 more points per game (71.2) than the Owls allow (65.1).
Tennessee is 15-7 against the spread and 18-4 overall when scoring more than 65.1 points.
Florida Atlantic is 15-2 against the spread and 18-0 overall when allowing fewer than 71.2 points.
The implied moneyline probability in this matchup gives Tennessee a 71.4% chance to win.
This season, Florida Atlantic has been the underdog six times and won four of those games.
Florida Atlantic is 18-10 against the spread and 27-3 overall when it scores more than 57.8 points.
Tennessee is 16-13 against the spread and 22-7 overall when it gives up fewer than 78.4 points.

Florida Atlantic Owls vs. Tennessee Volunteers Betting Odds and Prediction

As you can likely tell from the comments above, this game should be a defensive grind, with the first team to 65 the likely victor. Given the way both teams have played thus far, a 5.5-point spread seems as though it may have grown too far. With each passing tournament victory, this Owls team is going to gain confidence while the hard-nosed style and inconsistent nature of the Vols may lead to detrimental results at any moment.

This game should stay close as the Vols are due for a stinker and FAU is due for an efficient effort from deep.

March Madness Pick: Tennessee. | Bet Florida Atlantic vs. Tennessee Today
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