The home team has won every game in the Eastern Conference first-round series between the Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat, and NBA oddsmakers expect that trend to continue in Game 5 back in Miami on Tuesday.

How to Bet Sixers at Heat NBA Odds & TV Info

• When: Tuesday, 7:30 PM ET
• Where: FTX Arena
• TV: TNT
• Stream: TNT app
• Radio: Tunein.com
• NBA Odds: Heat -3 (total 209.5)

Why Bet on Philadelphia?

The Sixers took Game 4 116-108 at home on Sunday. The Sixers led the Heat 64-56 at halftime, and 89-85 after three quarters. James Harden put together a game-clinching fourth quarter for the home team, connecting on four of his six total 3-pointers and scoring 16 of his game-high 31 points in the frame. Harden took just 18 shots in Game 4, but that was enough as he scored or assisted on 54 of the 98 points (55%) the Sixers scored while he was on the court. The 16 points Harden scored in the fourth quarter were his second-biggest scoring output in a quarter in his 143 playoff appearances.

The Heat have pressured Harden throughout this series by denying him space to operate, especially when Joel Embiid is not on the court. In the first two games, which Embiid missed with a concussion and a broken orbital bone, Miami swarmed Harden with multiple defenders or threw a zone at him to muck up the Sixers’ offense. That’s not working with Embiid back.

“Just took what the defense gave me,” said Harden after Game 4. “Same shots, just made some. Nothing really changed, man, I just made some shots. Obviously, that’s a game-changer, but just being aggressive. And that group that started the fourth quarter did a really good job of pushing the lead up and doing what we’re supposed to do.”

If this version of Harden shows up nightly, the Sixers are a strong championship contender. Harden’s step-back jumper, burst, ability to the drive in the paint, and lethal three-point stroke paired with his playmaking skills opens up a different dynamic for the Sixers’ offense.

Embiid notched his seventh double-double in eight appearances this postseason, finishing with 24 points and a game-high 11 rebounds in 38 minutes. Danny Green went 3-for-4 from downtown and finished with 11 points, two rebounds, one assist, two steals, and one block in 24 minutes as a starter.  All five 76ers starters, plus Georges Niang off the bench, scored in double figures in the win.

Why Bet on Miami?

Why did the Heat lose Game 3 and 4? Not because of Jimmy Butler, who totaled 72 points in the two games. While Butler was 25-of-42 shooting for the weekend, his teammates shot a collective 40 of 117 (35 percent) overall and 11 of 54 (20 percent) from 3-point range.

“He made everything,” Sixers coach Doc Rivers said after Butler had 40 points in Game 4. “You know what he did tonight? He went left a lot. That’s something that, in the past, he’s really not done. So, we’re gonna have to figure that one out because he was tough, and he scored on everyone. He didn’t care who it was — he was scoring.”

Butler is just third player in Heat postseason history to score at least 30 points in consecutive games, joining only Dwyane Wade and LeBron James. Butler is also averaging 2.38 steals this postseason, most of any player.

Kyle Lowry missed the first two games with a hamstring injury and has scored a total of six points on 3-of-14 shooting (0-of-8 3-pointers) in 55 minutes in two games. Lowry reportedly re-injured his hamstring in Game 4 and is questionable for Tuesday.

Heat center Bam Adebayo said Lowry’s court IQ would be missed the most if he can’t play.

“That’s one of his biggest assets to me,” Adebayo said. “His IQ, just talking through the game, talking to him, seeing how he sees the game, he makes all of us better just by just communicating.”

Duncan Robinson could see more playing time if Lowry is out. Robinson then went from playing a consistent role off the bench to being completely out of the Heat’s rotation to begin this playoff series. The Heat have opted to use a four-man bench rotation of Tyler Herro, Dewayne Dedmon, Victor Oladipo and Caleb Martin through the first three games of the second round.

The Heat have had five different leading scorers in their nine postseason games. Miami has currently won eight-straight home games, including the last three of the regular season and all five in the postseason.

Game Trends

• 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
• 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.
• 76ers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
• Heat are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Heat are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.

Expert Prediction

• Heat 109, Sixers 104

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