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The Reds are still alive in the NL Wild Card race as they visit the Guardians on Wednesday in what is expected to be the final home game in the career of Cleveland’s Tony Francona. The Guardians are short favorites on the MLB odds

| 2023 MLB Expert Analysis | MyBookie Sportsbook | MLB Week 25: Monday September 25 – Sunday October 1, 2023

How to Bet Cincinnati at Cleveland MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Wednesday, 6:10 PM ET
Where: Progressive Field
Probable pitchers (away/home): Andrew Abbott/Shane Bieber
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Guardians -135, Reds +115 (total 7.5)

Why Bet on Cincinnati?

The Reds are trying to become the third team ever to make the playoffs following a 100-loss season (2017 Twins, 2020 Marlins) and the fourth Postseason team with a losing home record during the regular season (1981 Royals, 19-28; 2001 Braves, 40-41; 2020 Marlins, 11-15). The Reds have won 12 of their last 17 road series, including a streak of 7 straight road series wins snapped by the Brewers in the last series before the All-Star Game break.

It was hoped that Cincinnati would activate stellar rookie infielder Matt McLain (.290, 16 HR, 50 RBI) for Tuesday’s series opener but that didn’t happen. Maybe Wednesday as he nears the end of his recovery from a right oblique strain. The Reds were 18-22 (.450) when he was promoted from the minors on May 15 and went 50-42 (.543) until he was injured.

It’s rookie lefty Andrew Abbott on the hill for the Reds. Abbott (8-5) did not factor into the decision last Friday, allowing two runs on four hits and two walks over 4.1 innings in a 7-5 loss against the Pirates. He struck out seven. Abbott mostly cruised through the first three innings before serving up a solo homer to Ke’Bryan Hayes in the top of the fourth and an additional solo shot to Henry Davis in the top of the fifth.

Abbott carries a respectable 3.70 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 119:44 K:BB into his final regular-season start. The lefty’s 161 innings — combined at the big leagues and Minors — has far surpassed his previous professional high of 118 innings from last season. Abbott had a 1.90 ERA over his first 10 starts but has a 6.15 ERA over his past 10 games and has worked less than five innings in five of his past six outings.

“I feel good every time out,” Abbott said after his last outing. “I think my routine really helps with that, just being able to feel good and take the ball whenever they need me to. During this time, I’ve never experienced this, so it’s kind of just new to me as well.”

Abbott didn’t debut until 6/5 but still ranks among the National League’s rookie leaders in ERA (4th), wins (3rd), strikeouts (2nd), starts (T5th), innings pitched (6th), batting average against (4th, .232) and WHIP (6th, 1.27). On Aug. 16, Abbott allowed two runs over five innings in a home win over Cleveland in his lone career start vs. the Guardians.

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Why Bet on Cleveland?

Leadoff hitter Steven Kwan is the first Cleveland outfielder to post a 35+ double, 20+ steal season since Michael Brantley (45 2B, 23 SB) in 2014. Kwan is only the 7th different Cleveland hitter to produce a 35 double-20 steal campaign by their age 25 season.

The Guardians will miss the playoffs in Terry Francona’s final season as manager. Slowed by major health issues in recent years, the personable, popular Francona may be stepping away, but not before leaving a lasting imprint as a manager and one of the game’s most beloved figures. He played 10 seasons with the Expos, Cubs, Reds, Indians and Brewers, and then managed 23 more seasons. He won two World Series titles in Boston and three Manager of the Year Awards overall.

No, Francona has not officially announced his retirement just yet, simply because he doesn’t want the spotlight in the final week of the regular season but he will not be back next year. There will be a video tribute on the scoreboard at Progressive Field on Wednesday. The first 20,000 fans will receive “Thank you, Tito,” shirts and those looking for tickets in the upper deck can purchase some for just $11 in honor of the 11 seasons he spent in Cleveland.

It’s former AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber (5-6) on the mound. Bieber came away with a no-decision in last Friday’s 9-8 win over the Orioles, giving up five runs (four earned) on six hits and a walk over five innings. He struck out five. Two of the runs charged to Bieber in his first big-league start since July 9 scored on a wild pitch in the second inning and his own throwing error.

“I gotta try really hard to keep things in perspective,” Bieber said. “I want to be a lot better than I was [on Friday], but my arm felt great. There’s a lot of work to be done and a lot left to be desired and I’m confident that I’ll be able to do all of that.”

It’s been a tough, injury-plagued season for Bieber, whose 3.91 ERA and 12.5 WHIP are his highest marks since he was a rookie in 2018. It’s worth wondering how much of Bieber’s statistical decay can be attributed to his physical ailment, and how much can be attributed instead to real decline. The Guardians, for their part, may not stick around to find out the answer as they may trade Bieber this summer because he’s a free agent after the 2024 campaign. He hasn’t faced Cincinnati this year.

The Reds haven’t won a season series vs the Guardians since 2014 (3-1). The Reds won (5) or tied (9) 14 of the 25 Ohio Cup season series, including 5 straight wins or ties from 2006-2010, but lost 5 of the last 8 season series.

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MLB Reds vs Guardians Expert Prediction

Guardians 4, Reds 3

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